Gardner-Webb at Texas
Thursday, November 5, 2026
8:00 PM ET, Moody Center (SEC Network+)
Texas is a 38.5-point favorite with a total of 154.5, and my play is Under 154.5.
Nobody is betting Gardner-Webb to win in Austin. The only real question is how many points this game produces, and I think the number is a few buckets too high.
Texas’s 109 is the number everyone remembers. No. 7 Texas opened Sean Miller’s second season by hanging 109 on Chicago State. The Longhorns shot 62.5 percent, made half their threes, and got 48 points from the bench. Matas Vokietaitis, a 7-footer from Lithuania, went 9-for-9 for 22 points. It was the most Texas had scored in a season opener since 1992. A 109-59 final makes 155 look easy. It also made this total look easy to set.
The other half of the scoreboard is the problem. For the over to hit, Gardner-Webb has to carry its share. On Monday the Runnin’ Bulldogs scored 46 at UConn. They missed eight of their first nine shots and shot 25.5 percent for the night. This is basically a new team. Eleven of the players are newcomers, only three are back from last year, and the league’s coaches picked them ninth in the Big South. KenPom ranks their offense 351st in the country. Now they play their second straight road game against a top-10 team, and Texas’s defense ranks 16th.
The BEST 2026 Basketball Bonus: Deposit $100 to $1000 and get a 75% real cash bonus when you deposit using Bitcoin at Bovada Sportsbook!
The model math. Run KenPom’s offense and defense ratings at the roughly 72 possessions these teams play, and you get something like Texas in the high 80s and Gardner-Webb in the high 50s. That’s about 147 points, a full touchdown under the market. Bart Torvik’s ratings tell the same story. Both systems still lean on preseason ratings this early, but two games haven’t proven them wrong. The Longhorns held Chicago State to 39.3 percent shooting and forced 15 turnovers. Gardner-Webb has to get shots up just to keep pace with the clock.
Why the side doesn’t interest me. Texas covering 38.5 depends on Miller’s mood in the final eight minutes. He made it clear Monday that he likes his bench. “I do believe in our depth,” he said, and 10 Longhorns scored. When the walk-ons check in, the pace usually drops, the sets get sloppy, and the clock keeps running. That helps the under far more than it helps either side of the spread.
How this can still burn me. Texas can do this alone. If the Longhorns shoot 50 percent from three again and get out in transition off live-ball turnovers, they can reach 100 by themselves. Then Gardner-Webb only needs garbage-time free throws to push it over. A few loose possessions with the walk-ons on the floor could add six points in a hurry. I’m betting the Bulldogs’ offense stays as cold as it was in Hartford, and that’s the whole risk.
Projected score: Texas 93, Gardner-Webb 55
The Pick: Under 154.5 (-108)
Ride the under in Austin and bring some extra bankroll into Thursday night. New players at MyBookie Sportsbook get a 100% REAL CASH bonus on a first deposit of $100 to $300 with promo code PREDICT100. That’s a FREE way to bet the Under 154.5 and the rest of your college basketball picks.
