Penn at Illinois
Thursday, November 5, 2026
8:30 PM ET, State Farm Center
No. 3 Illinois is a 30.5-point favorite over Penn with a total of 169.5 in most books. My play is Penn +30.5.
Illinois beat Fairleigh Dickinson by 75 points on Monday. Seventy-five. A program record for margin, a program record 19 threes, and a betting market that clearly watched every second of it. This line opened at 29.5 and has crept up from there. I think the market is grading the scoreboard against FDU instead of the roster Illinois will actually put on the floor Thursday night.
The Illini that beat Penn in March aren’t walking through that door
Yes, Illinois smoked this same Penn program 105-70 in the first round of last year’s NCAA Tournament. Look at who did it. David Mirkovic went for 29 points and 17 rebounds, and Keaton Wagler added 18 and seven assists while hounding TJ Power into a six-point night. Wagler is now in the NBA after going fifth overall. Mirkovic, a preseason first-team All-American, is out after an emergency appendectomy on top of offseason foot surgery. Senior shooter Jake Davis separated his shoulder Monday, had surgery, and is out indefinitely.
“It just puts a pit in my stomach because he’s a guy that works harder than anybody every day,” Brad Underwood said of Davis.
Four of the five starters from that March game are different. Illinois is still loaded. Andrej Stojakovic and Providence transfer Stefan Vaaks each dropped 20 on Monday, and freshmen Quentin Coleman and Ethan Brown nearly posted triple-doubles in their debuts. But two freshmen starting their second college game against an Ivy League champion is not the same thing as two freshmen starting against FDU.
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The numbers say this is a 22-point game
Here’s the part that sold me. Both of the major college basketball rating systems, which grade teams by points scored and allowed per possession against the quality of their opponents, land in the same neighborhood. KenPom projects Illinois 92-69. Bart Torvik projects 91-70. That’s a 21-to-23-point win, and the market is asking Penn to stay within 30.5. Eight points of air is a lot for a game where the favorite is missing its best player.
Torvik still rates Illinois the best offense in the country, so I’m not betting on the Illini going cold. I’m betting the gap between a top-five team and a solid mid-major is closer to 22 than 31 once you strip out an opening-night layup line.
Fran McCaffery has seen this movie before
McCaffery has gone head to head with his friend Underwood 16 times, mostly from the Iowa bench, and he scheduled this trip on purpose. “I knew they’d be one of the top five teams in the country,” he told The Daily Pennsylvanian. “It’s an incredible challenge.” He also called this group the deepest team he has ever coached, which matters when you’re trying to absorb foul trouble against Illinois’ size.
Power is back after a 44-point night in the Ivy title game, Michael Zanoni scored 20 against Illinois in March, and Notre Dame transfer Sir Mohammed poured in 32 in Penn’s intrasquad scrimmage. McCaffery says Mohammed can play four positions. Penn doesn’t need to win. It needs to keep the margin out of the 30s, and this roster has enough shotmakers to do that.
The case against me
Illinois punished Penn on the glass in March, 48-25, and with two 7-footers in the Ivisic brothers that size gap hasn’t gone anywhere. If Penn misses early and the Illini get out in transition, the rout can snowball the way it did against FDU. Penn is also playing its season opener on the road against a team that already has a game under its belt, so rust is a real concern. Penn’s Ryan Alman is listed as questionable. And a hot shooting night from an offense this good can bury any spread.
Projected score: Illinois 93, Penn 68
The Pick: Penn +30.5 (-110)
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