Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors
Thursday, November 5, 2026
10:00 PM ET, Chase Center (NBA TV)
Golden State is a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 235.5, and my play is Warriors -7.5.
“I want to beat them bad.” That’s Klay Thompson on his return to Chase Center, and he means it. He also played overtime in Los Angeles less than 24 hours earlier.
The sentimental story is easy to like. Thompson is back in the building he helped make famous, Andrew Wiggins is with him in a Heat uniform, and Klay showed up hot. He hit 11 of 19 threes over two games, then won Wednesday’s game at the Clippers with a three in overtime. I’m still betting the schedule over the storyline.
Miami’s legs are the whole handicap
This is the Heat’s third game in four nights and the second night of a back-to-back. The night before was a 117-116 overtime win in which Giannis Antetokounmpo played 40-plus minutes and posted 27 points, 14 rebounds and six assists. He’s also been playing through a right wrist sprain, and Miami’s injury report wasn’t in as of early Thursday. The Warriors haven’t played since Monday.
Even rested, Miami hasn’t defended anyone. Basketball Reference has the Heat allowing 119.8 points per 100 possessions, and opponents are shooting an effective 58.2 percent against them. That’s what you get with Wiggins shooting 29.4 percent from three and Wiggins still figuring out how to fit next to Giannis. The Heat are 3-5. The 145-point night against Indiana is the exception. The 138 they gave up to the Lakers on Monday is the norm.
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Golden State found its pulse after 0-3
The Warriors opened 0-3 and people were writing obituaries. They’ve won five straight since, against a schedule tough enough that their simple rating (point margin adjusted for opponents) sits above +8. Stephen Curry is scoring 30 a night and went for 34 on Monday, including an 18-point third quarter that buried Phoenix. Brandin Podziemski has taken over late, and Charles Bassey’s career-high 19 showed they can survive at center even with Kristaps Porzingis away from the team.
The absences are real. Jimmy Butler, Moses Moody, Porzingis and Gui Santos are all out, and Draymond Green is averaging 3.2 points. None of them played Monday against Phoenix, and Golden State won anyway. The Warriors you’re betting on tonight are the same team that just won that game.
This number opened around Golden State -4.5 and moved to 7.5. Part of that is the market reacting to the back-to-back, and I’d still play it to -8. A rested home team with Curry, against a tired team with a leaky defense, gets past a field goal more often than not.
The case against me. Giannis doesn’t care about schedules. If he plays his usual 34 minutes and attacks a Warriors front line with no Porzingis, Miami can live at the rim and the free-throw line. Klay could also turn this into a shootout he wins on emotion alone. Miami plays fast, too, so a hot shooting night from the Heat can wipe out a 10-point lead in a few minutes. The biggest swing is the injury report. If Miami gets a full roster and fresh-looking legs, this gets tighter.
Projected score: Warriors 120, Heat 109
The Pick: Warriors -7.5 (-106)
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