Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings
Monday, November 9, 2026
8:15 PM ET, U.S. Bank Stadium (ESPN/ABC)
The Buffalo Bills are 3.5-point favorites over the Minnesota Vikings at most books, with the total at 45.5. My play is Vikings +3.5.
Two 6-1 teams, built in completely opposite ways, meet on Monday night. Buffalo has the best offense in the league. Minnesota has the best defense. One of them is laying more than a field goal on the road, and I think that’s the wrong one.
Start with the number. This game opened around Bills -3, and money briefly came in on Minnesota before Kevin O’Connell revealed that Kyler Murray hurt his hamstring in the 19-15 loss at Detroit. The market jumped to -3.5. Asked whether Murray could miss the game, O’Connell said, “I don’t think we’re there yet.” Murray is questionable, and the Vikings’ first practice report comes Thursday. The line moved off the key number of 3 on a maybe, and that’s the kind of move I like to fade.
Minnesota wins ugly, and it wins a lot
By my count from nflverse play-by-play through Week 8, Minnesota’s defense ranks first in the NFL in EPA per play (expected points allowed on each snap) and first in success rate. It’s also first against the pass, and that’s the side of the ball Josh Allen lives on. No opponent has scored more than 22 points against the Vikings this season. Six of their seven games have finished with fewer than 40 combined points, and the market knows it: Minnesota is 6-1 to the Under, the best mark in the league.
The offense is the problem. It ranks 29th in EPA per play and 30th in success rate. At Detroit, the Vikings went 3-for-11 on third and fourth down and managed 266 total yards. Nobody is confusing this attack with a good one, Murray or not. But there’s a case for Carson Wentz if he has to start. He played most of the Week 1 win over Green Bay and all of the 9-3 grinder at Chicago, with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. This team doesn’t need its quarterback to win the game. It needs him to avoid losing it.
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Buffalo’s defense is the real weak link in this game
Everyone remembers the Bills holding Baltimore to 144 yards last time out. Remember who was under center for the Ravens, too: a third- or fourth-string quarterback. Over the full season, Buffalo’s defense ranks 28th in EPA per play and 29th in success rate. This is a team that gave up 31 to Detroit and 34 to the Rams and needed a shootout to win in Las Vegas. Even a bad Minnesota offense should find a few drives against that unit.
Combine both sides of the ball and these teams grade out almost even per play. Minnesota’s margin is actually a hair better. Give the Vikings home field under the roof, and +3.5 looks like at least a half point too many.
Allen will get his. He completes 69.7% of his passes against zone coverage, and Minnesota plays zone more than almost anybody. But zone is built to keep the ball in front of the defense and make offenses earn it the long way. Against the Vikings, that’s how a 30-point team ends up scoring 23.
The case against me
If Murray plays at 70%, the worst version of this offense shows up. The Vikings haven’t cracked 300 yards in either of their last two games, and Murray has completed just 49% of his throws against the blitz. Left tackle Christian Darrisaw is also questionable with a shoulder injury, and a backup at left tackle is a bad recipe in a game this tight. And Allen can wreck any plan on a busted play, which is why Buffalo has scored at least 24 points every week.
I’ll take that risk at +3.5. If the line drops back to 3, the edge shrinks. Below that, I’d pass.
Projected score: Bills 23, Vikings 21
The Pick: Vikings +3.5
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