Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, November 8, 2026
1:00 PM ET, Lucas Oil Stadium
The Cowboys are 6-point road favorites over the Colts with a total of 51.5 at most books, and my play is Cowboys -6.
How do you bet on a team that’s packing boxes in the middle of the season? You don’t. You bet against it.
The Colts are in teardown mode. In the span of a few weeks, Indianapolis fired general manager Chris Ballard, shipped guard Quenton Nelson to Seattle and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner to San Francisco, and opened the phone lines on Jonathan Taylor, according to NFL Network’s reporting. Receiver Josh Downs has asked for a trade too. The deadline is Nov. 10, two days after this game, so Taylor could be dealt before kickoff or suit up for what might be his last game in blue. That’s not a locker room built for a bounce-back.
Then came last Sunday’s 42-7 beatdown in Jacksonville, the fourth straight loss. Afterward, head coach Shane Steichen told reporters, “I’m going to evaluate everything, every position going forward,” when asked about his quarterback, per ESPN. The club has since said Daniel Jones stays the starter, but the numbers are rough: five touchdowns, nine interceptions and a 60.4% completion rate, the worst of his career.
The efficiency gap is a canyon. Through Week 8, nflverse play-by-play data has the Colts 31st in EPA per dropback, meaning their passing game is actively losing them expected points. They’re 31st in overall offensive efficiency, too. Dallas, meanwhile, ranks fourth in offensive EPA per play. Dak Prescott has 2,046 yards with 14 touchdowns against five picks, and CeeDee Lamb has 709 yards and six scores. That’s a passing game that should feast on a Colts defense that ranks 23rd in EPA allowed and just traded away Buckner.
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Dallas has its own mess, but it’s the fun kind. The Cowboys are 3-5 because their defense leaks like a screen door on a submarine. They rank dead last in EPA allowed per play, give up 152.8 rushing yards a game per ESPN, and just let Arizona’s Tyler Allgeier rip off 147 yards on 11 carries in a 33-30 overtime loss. Dallas led that game 17-10 entering the fourth quarter and still found a way to lose it. That’s three losses in four weeks.
So yes, laying six with this defense makes my palms sweat a little. But here’s the thing: the Colts’ passing offense can’t punish bad coverage, and that’s where Dallas is weakest (30th against the pass by EPA). Indianapolis has to win this game on the ground with a running back whose own team is trying to trade him. In the 42-7 loss, he got only eight carries.
Combine both sides and the Cowboys rate 20th in net EPA per play, while the Colts are 29th. That gap is worth more than six points on a neutral field, and the Colts’ home crowd isn’t exactly rocking right now. I’d play this up to -6.5 and lay off at -7.
Why I could be wrong. Taylor against the league’s worst run defense is a real problem if Indianapolis commits to it. He has eight rushing touchdowns already, and Dallas is going in with safeties Caleb Downs and P.J. Locke in the concussion protocol and tight end Jake Ferguson (ankle) uncertain. If Taylor is traded before Sunday, the Colts get worse, but if he stays and gets 25 touches, this could turn into a grinding, low-possession game where six points is a lot to cover. And Dallas has shown it can blow a lead with the best of them.
Projected score: Cowboys 31, Colts 21
The Pick: Cowboys -6 (-110)
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