Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks
Friday, November 6, 2026
8:00 PM ET, American Airlines Center, Dallas
Dallas is a 7.5-point favorite in the market, with the total at 225.5. My play is Mavericks -7.5.
Utah is 1-7 and sliding into American Airlines Center without Jusuf Nurkic and without Jaren Jackson Jr., who’s done for a stretch with a torn MCL. Six straight losses. Zero road wins. That is not a profile you fade lightly when Cooper Flagg is dropping 24 points, six boards and six dimes a night for a Mavericks team that already beat Oklahoma City and Houston this season.
The Jazz can’t buy a stop
Basketball-Reference has Utah’s raw net rating at about minus-11, and even the schedule-adjusted mark sits underwater. They score 104-ish points per 100 possessions and give back nearly 115. Keyonte George can create (22 a night), Ace Bailey and Lauri Markkanen give them size on the wing, and Darryn Peterson has flashed as a secondary creator — none of that fixes a defense missing its rim anchors. Second-chance points and late-clock collapses have defined the skid more than any one bad shooting night.
Dallas, for all its early wobble to 4-4, rates as a plus-five team once you adjust for opponents. Flagg has been the engine. Kyrie Irving is still efficient even when he’s not living at the rim. P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford clean the glass. Santi Aldama is probable for his Mavericks debut after knee surgery ended his Memphis season in March, and Max Christie is probable to return from hip soreness. That is real help against a Jazz frontcourt running on fumes.
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A Cup game Dallas should control
This is Emirates NBA Cup group play at home. The Mavs are 5-3 against the spread and have covered more often than not when Flagg runs the show. Utah is 1-7 ATS. The public smell on a 1-7 road dog can inflate the number a half-point, but 7.5 still feels short of the talent and health gap. I’d still be interested if the market floated toward nine.
The case against me. Dallas just dropped two straight, including a one-point loss in San Antonio without Christie. Kyrie has carried a “restriction” tag in some reports, and Aldama’s debut minutes are a mystery. Utah has kept a few recent games within a possession in the final five minutes — they just can’t finish. If George goes nuclear and Dallas sleeps through the first quarter, a one-possession cover gets sweaty.
Projected score: Dallas 118, Utah 108.
The Pick: Mavericks -7.5
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