Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans
Friday, November 6, 2026
8:00 PM ET, Smoothie King Center
Most books have the Timberwolves -4.5 with a total near 230.5. My play is Minnesota -4.5.
Anthony Edwards is on the shelf after knee arthroscopy, and Donte DiVincenzo is still rehabbing an Achilles repair. That sentence used to end the preview. It doesn’t anymore. Minnesota just walked into Houston and won 117-107 behind LaMelo Ball and Ayo Dosunmu, and the Wolves are somehow 8-1 against the number while the star recovers.
The new engine still runs hot
Ball is averaging 17-plus points and nearly six assists, and Chris Finch wants the ball in his hands late for a reason. Dosunmu is pouring in 16 a night at better than 51 percent from the field. Jonathan Kuminga is shooting north of 46 percent from three and just added 16, eight and five in Houston with a pair of timely threes. Rudy Gobert still vacuums the glass at nearly 12 boards a game. This isn’t a charity case roster filling minutes until December.
Basketball-Reference’s adjusted ratings still punch Minnesota into the top five in net rating (about +12) with a defensive rating that sits among the league’s stingiest. New Orleans checks in closer to +3. Even after you tax the Wolves for Edwards’ absence, the efficiency gap does not vanish on a Friday in the Smoothie King Center.
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New Orleans earned its streak — now prove it.
Give the Pelicans their flowers. Four straight wins after an 0-4 start, including overtime escapes against Memphis and Utah, is real resilience. Zion Williamson is at 21.5 points on nearly 61 percent shooting. Saddiq Bey is cooking for 16-plus off the bench. Dejounte Murray is back from a short absence and just dropped 20. Yves Missi is out, which thins the rim protection, but Trey Murphy III is probable and the depth chart still looks crowded.
The problem is matchup math. Minnesota’s defense travels. New Orleans has been winning ugly overtime games; the Wolves just beat a good Rockets team on the road. Home energy helps, but it does not erase a double-digit adjusted net gap against a group that keeps covering.
Why I could be wrong
Zion can take over a quarter and erase a five-point lead before the timeout horn. If Terrence Shannon Jr. sits again and Minnesota’s wing creation stalls, New Orleans’ bench wave (Bey, Derik Queen) can turn this into a grind where -4.5 feels heavy. A four-game winner at home always has a script for chaos.
Projected score: Timberwolves 118, Pelicans 111.
The Pick: Timberwolves -4.5
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