Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks
Friday, November 6, 2026
8:00 PM ET, Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee
Toronto is a 6.5-point road favorite, with the total at 230.5. My play is Raptors -6.5.
When the market makes a .500 team a near-touchdown favorite on the road, believe the market. Milwaukee is 1-7. The defense doesn’t generate deflections, doesn’t force turnovers and doesn’t survive bench minutes. Toronto does not need Kawhi Leonard to win this game by more than a possession or two.
RJ Barrett is putting up 21 a night. Immanuel Quickley runs the show. Ja’Kobe Walter and Collin Murray-Boyles give them young two-way juice. Scottie Barnes — averaging 23.5 points when available — is questionable with adductor and groin tightness, and that is the only real pregame question mark. Kawhi is out for left-knee management again, the same absence that turned a 2-0 start into a choppy 1-3 stretch. Even so, Toronto’s net rating sits near plus-four while Milwaukee’s wallows around minus-11 (Basketball-Reference has the Bucks’ adjusted mark near minus-13.5, among the league’s worst).
Milwaukee’s starters aren’t the problem. Everyone else is.
Tyler Herro (22.3 ppg, knocking down threes at a healthy clip), Jaime Jaquez Jr., Myles Turner and the young bigs can keep a first unit competitive. NBA.com’s early power rankings noted the Bucks’ starting five has outscored opponents in most games. Then the bench checks in and the wheels come off — no pressure on the ball, no help at the rim, and a four-game losing streak that includes blowout losses to Houston and Cleveland. Home ATS is 1-3. Fiserv Forum has not been a refuge.
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Toronto’s transition attack ranked near the top of the league in both ends of the floor early, per those same rankings, and a Bucks defense that ranks last in opponent turnover rate is exactly the kind of unit that feeds runouts. Recent head-to-heads have been ugly for Milwaukee — Toronto has won three of the last four meetings by comfortable margins, including a 122-94 stomping. Different season, same talent disparity.
What could go wrong: Barnes sits and Toronto’s half-court creation thins out enough for Herro to hang 35 in a home spot. High totals (230.5) mean one hot shooting quarter can erase a spread. The Bucks are desperate, and desperate teams cover more often than they win. I’d still want Toronto as long as the number stays north of four.
Projected score: Toronto 121, Milwaukee 110.
The Pick: Raptors -6.5
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