Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves
Thursday, November 12, 2026
8:00 PM ET, Target Center
The Minnesota Timberwolves are 5.5-point favorites over the Dallas Mavericks with a total of 226.5 at most books (227.5 in a few spots), and my play is Under 226.5.
Everybody is going to show up to this one talking about Cooper Flagg’s 43-point night against Indiana. I get it. But the most important number in this building tonight belongs to the other bench: Minnesota is allowing 106.1 points per 100 possessions, the best defensive rating in the league, and it has done most of that work without Anthony Edwards.
The Wolves found a new way to win. Edwards had arthroscopic surgery on his right knee on Oct. 29 and is expected to miss at least eight weeks. The obituaries got written fast. Instead, Minnesota is 5-2 without him and riding a four-game win streak into tonight. LaMelo Ball has grown into the lead role after a rocky start (he scored a season-high 34 against Milwaukee), and Ayo Dosunmu has 92 points in four November games as Edwards’ replacement in the starting lineup. But the scoring isn’t the real story. The Wolves are holding opponents to a .497 effective field goal percentage, second-best in the NBA, with Rudy Gobert pulling down 12.1 rebounds a night behind it all. They close games by choking teams out, too. In their three-game run through Milwaukee, Houston and New Orleans, they won the fourth quarters by a combined 105-77.
Dallas is good now, just not in shootouts. The Mavericks went 26-56 last season and are 7-4 this year with three straight wins. Flagg is putting up 25.9 points, 6.9 rebounds and 6.9 assists, and Kyrie Irving is at 22.9 points a night in nine games. Here’s what bettors should care about: only three of Dallas’ 11 games have gone over the total. The Mavericks’ offense is middle of the pack (12th in points per 100 possessions), and they’re playing without Dereck Lively II, who’s still out after foot surgery, which leaves Daniel Gafford to anchor the middle.
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The math says this number is a bucket or two high. Both teams play at almost exactly league-average pace, roughly 99 to 100 possessions a game. Run Minnesota’s offense against the Dallas defense, and the Dallas offense into that Wolves wall, and you get a final in the 224 range. Neither team’s games have been running up big scores either. Dallas games are averaging about 225 total points and Minnesota games about the same, both just under tonight’s number, and that’s before you factor in this matchup. The Mavericks are also opening a three-game road trip against the league’s top-rated defense.
The case against me. Flagg and Irving combined for 78 points on Monday, and if both get hot from the outside, no defense is going to save this ticket. Ball’s turnovers and foul trouble have been an issue since the Edwards injury (“He’s got to figure it out,” Chris Finch said earlier this month), and sloppy possessions turn into transition points in a hurry. Both teams also come in rested, so tired legs won’t help the Under.
I also looked at Minnesota on the spread. The Wolves are 10-1 against the number and swept all four meetings last season. But this line opened at 4.5 and has already moved to 5.5. At that price the side is fair, and the better value is in the total.
Projected score: Timberwolves 114, Mavericks 108
The Pick: Under 226.5 (-110)
Count on the Wolves to drag this one into the mud and bring some extra bankroll into the weekend. New players at MyBookie Sportsbook get a 100% REAL CASH bonus on a first deposit of $100 to $300 with promo code PREDICT100. That’s a FREE way to bet the Under 226.5 and the rest of your NBA picks.
