Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers
Thursday, November 12, 2026
7:00 PM ET, Xfinity Mobile Arena
Philadelphia is a 10.5-point favorite at most books with the total at 221.5. My play is the Toronto Raptors +10.5.
Here’s a fun fact the standings won’t tell you: the 76ers are 9-3, and they’ve won exactly two of those 12 games by more than 10 points. They win close, they win ugly, and every so often they get run off their own floor. Now the market wants them to win by double digits. I’m not buying it.
A 9-3 team with a .500 team’s heartbeat. Strip away the record and Philadelphia looks ordinary. Through Tuesday’s games, the Sixers had a net rating of +1.0 per 100 possessions per Basketball Reference, 16th in the league, and their offense ranked 21st. The defense (seventh) is legit. The scoring is not. That’s how you beat the Knicks by five, the Hornets by five and the Pacers by five, then get blitzed by 24 in Cleveland and by 22 at home to Boston on Tuesday. Tyrese Maxey is carrying a big load at 26.7 points per game, and when he cools off there isn’t much margin for error.
The stars are banged up, too. Joel Embiid (right foot) and LeBron James (back) are both day-to-day. Both played Tuesday against the Celtics, but that’s a lot of maintenance for a pair of high-mileage stars on one day of rest. If either one sits, a 10.5-point spread starts to look like a fantasy.
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Toronto’s B-team still bites
Yes, the Raptors are thin. Kawhi Leonard (left knee) has played only twice and is out again, and Scottie Barnes has missed three straight with a groin problem. Barnes said before Wednesday’s game that he was “progressing well,” according to Sportsnet’s Blake Murphy, but ESPN lists him as out for this one. Here’s the thing, though: Toronto went 1-2 without Barnes, won by 14 in Milwaukee and lost to Boston by five on Wednesday. That’s not a team folding up the tent.
Even with the injuries, the Raptors’ season profile is better than Philly’s. Basketball Reference had Toronto ninth in offensive rating and plus-3.3 in net rating. They crash the glass hard, grabbing 32.6% of their own misses, and they force turnovers on 17.6% of opponent trips. Extra possessions are the best friend of an underdog getting double digits. RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley and Jakob Poeltl give them enough steady hands to stay within shouting distance.
The case against me
This is the second night of a back-to-back for Toronto, and tired legs show up in the fourth quarter, right when a big favorite pulls away. If Barnes sits again and Embiid and LeBron both feel fine, Philadelphia has more talent on the floor by a wide margin. Also watch the injury report before tip: if Barnes is upgraded the number could drop. If Embiid or LeBron is ruled out, it could drop even more.
Still, I trust what Philly has done over 12 games more than what its name says. This team grinds out five- and six-point wins. That’s the profile of a team that doesn’t cover this kind of number.
Projected score: 76ers 112, Raptors 106
The Pick: Raptors +10.5
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