Detroit Pistons at Washington Wizards
Thursday, November 12, 2026
7:00 PM ET, Capital One Arena
The Pistons are 10.5-point favorites at most books with the total sitting around 221. My play is Detroit -10.5.
We already saw this movie three nights ago. Detroit beat Washington 122-111 at home on Monday, led for 94% of the game and never let Washington get more than a one-point lead. Now the sequel moves to D.C., and the Wizards walk into it on no rest.
Washington is running on fumes
The Wizards lost 114-101 in Indiana on Wednesday night, their fifth straight loss, and they have to turn around and host a rested Detroit team 24 hours later. That’s the whole story in one sentence. Washington’s starters carried a heavy load in that game: Kyshawn George played 39 minutes, and Anthony Davis, Trae Young and AJ Dybantsa each logged 34. The Pistons, meanwhile, haven’t played since Monday.
The skid isn’t just bad luck, either. Washington sits 4-8 and has been outscored by about six points a night. Through early November, Basketball Reference has the Wizards 23rd in offensive rating, which measures points scored per 100 possessions, and their -5.4 net rating ranks 22nd. A team that struggles to score on fresh legs doesn’t usually find its touch on dead ones.
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Detroit’s defense is the real headliner
The Pistons are 7-3, 4-1 on the road, and they’re doing it with a defense that allows just 106.1 points per 100 possessions, second-best in the league. They also pick pockets: opponents turn it over on 15.6% of their trips against Detroit, the fourth-highest rate in the league.
That showed up Monday. Washington coughed it up 18 times, Detroit piled up 19 fast-break points, and the Pistons scored 58 in the paint while dishing 31 assists. Cade Cunningham, who averages 22.3 points and 7.6 assists, only needed 17 points because everybody ate: John Collins had 24 on 9-of-13 shooting, and Duncan Robinson and Daniss Jenkins each scored 22.
Detroit is still without Jalen Duren (hamstring) and Isaiah Joe (hip), but neither played Monday either, and the Pistons won comfortably. Paul Reed grabbed 10 boards off the bench.
The one guy who can wreck this
Anthony Davis is the reason I’m not laying this with total comfort. He torched Detroit for 44 points on 16-of-21 shooting on Monday, and he’s averaging 25.7 points and 9.7 rebounds this season. If he does that again and Washington’s shooters wake up after going 9-of-36 from three in that game, a backdoor cover is in play. Double-digit NBA spreads also leave room for garbage-time buckets to flip the result late.
Still, the Pistons won by 11 on a night Davis was nearly perfect. Ask him to repeat it on the second night of a back-to-back and the math tilts hard toward Detroit. The edge in net rating is almost 14 points per 100 possessions before you account for the schedule spot.
Projected score: Pistons 117, Wizards 103
The Pick: Pistons -10.5 (-108)
Fresh legs against tired ones is the cleanest edge on Thursday’s card, so ride Detroit and bring some extra bankroll into the weekend. New players at MyBookie Sportsbook get a 100% REAL CASH bonus on a first deposit of $100 to $300 with promo code PREDICT100. That’s a FREE way to bet Pistons -10.5 and the rest of your NBA picks.
