Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns
Thursday, November 12, 2026
9:00 PM ET, Mortgage Matchup Center
Phoenix is a 6.5-point favorite at most books with the total at 214.5. My play is the Phoenix Suns -6.5.
Grayson Allen and Royce O’Neale come back to Phoenix tonight wearing teal, and Miles Bridges gets to look across at the team he spent seven seasons with. That’s a nice storyline from last summer’s trade. The betting story is simpler: Charlotte can’t score, and it’s about to try without most of its scorers.
The Hornets’ offense is running on fumes
Charlotte has the worst offensive rating in the league per Basketball Reference, 103.4 points per 100 possessions, and Brandon Miller played in most of those games. Now Miller, Kon Knueppel and Dennis Schroder are all out. Miller is the team’s leading scorer at 20.6 points per game. Charlotte also turns the ball over 19 times a game, the most in the NBA, and shoots a league-worst 40% from the field.
Yes, the Hornets beat Cleveland on Monday, 124-112, with Allen dropping 27 and Naz Reid adding 25. Enjoy it, because three nights earlier the same short-handed group lost by 39 at home to Boston. That Cleveland win also snapped a six-game losing streak. One good shooting night doesn’t fix a roster this thin, and Charlotte is 1-3 on the road.
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Phoenix’s 4-6 comes with an asterisk
The Suns’ record looks rough until you check who they’ve played. Basketball Reference has Phoenix facing the toughest schedule in the league so far, and SI’s Inside the Suns points out that the Suns have handled business against teams under .500. They beat Orlando by 13 and crushed the Clippers 133-110 on Tuesday. Devin Booker is scoring 25.1 a night, and the injury report is basically clean. Only center Mark Williams (shoulder surgery) is out. Jordan Goodwin returned from a calf injury Tuesday and hit 6 of 7 threes for 18 points. “It feels like every time it leaves his hands, it’s going to go in,” coach Jordan Ott said afterward.
Here’s the matchup that decides it. The Phoenix defense has been leaky, 27th in defensive rating, but this is the right opponent to clean that up against. Charlotte plays slow and coughs the ball up, and live-ball turnovers turn into easy points for Booker and company.
The case for Charlotte is real. Phoenix played Monday and Tuesday, while the Hornets have had two days off. Charlotte’s slow pace shortens the game, and fewer possessions make a 6.5-point cover harder. If Allen gets hot against his old team again, this could stay tight late. Moussa Diabate and Grant Williams are also listed as probable for Charlotte, which helps their rebounding.
Even so, a rested Charlotte team with no Miller and no Schroder still has to find buckets against a healthy home team that’s been beating up on weaker opponents. Every number that matters points toward Phoenix.
Projected score: Suns 113, Hornets 101
The Pick: Suns -6.5
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