Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens
Monday, November 16, 2026
8:15 PM ET, M&T Bank Stadium (ESPN)
The Baltimore Ravens are 4.5-point favorites over the Los Angeles Chargers with a total of 38.5 at most books (a few have it at -4), and my play is Ravens -4.5.
How bad does a team have to be for a 4-5 club with its third different starting quarterback in three weeks to be laying more than a field goal? Ask the Chargers. They are 0-8, the last winless team in the league, and they haven’t lost a single game by fewer than six points.
The Bolts’ offense is the worst in football, and it isn’t close
I wish I were exaggerating. Measured by expected points added per play, which grades every snap on how much it moved the needle, Los Angeles ranks dead last in the NFL. Its success rate is last too. The Chargers are scoring 15.1 points a game and have given the ball away 19 times. They’ve lost the turnover battle by seven for the season.
The worst part is the protection. Justin Herbert has been sacked 31 times in eight games, the second-worst sack rate in the league, and the Texans got to him eight times in last week’s 44-22 loss. Herbert came out of that game early in the fourth quarter with a left middle finger injury, and DJ Uiagalelei finished it. The X-rays were negative, and Jim Harbaugh said Herbert “should be good to go.” Even a healthy Herbert can’t throw from his back, though, and Ladd McConkey is day-to-day after back spasms kept him out against Houston.
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Jacoby Brissett walks in, and Jesse Minter gets his old defense’s playbook back
Baltimore’s season fell apart in Buffalo. Lamar Jackson hurt his right thumb, Tyler Huntley hurt his toe, and both went on injured reserve. Jackson is expected to miss six to nine weeks. Rookie Joe Fagnano got the start in last Thursday’s 33-10 loss to Jacksonville and threw for 60 yards and two interceptions. The offense was sputtering even before that. Baltimore has scored 10, 13, 10 and 10 points during its four-game losing streak.
That’s why the Jacoby Brissett trade matters. Arizona had dropped him down its depth chart, but he has 1,719 passing yards and 10 touchdowns this season. More importantly, he’s an NFL quarterback who can run an offense and hand the ball to Derrick Henry without the whole thing catching fire. “I do expect Jacoby Brissett to be our starter Monday night,” Minter said.
Then there’s the coaching angle. Minter ran the Chargers’ defense the last two seasons, and in 2024 it allowed the fewest points in the NFL. He knows that offensive line, and he knows Herbert’s habits. Baltimore also has a big schedule edge: the Ravens last played on Thursday, Nov. 5, so they’ll have 11 days to get Brissett ready. The Chargers fly across the country for a night kickoff on a standard week of rest.
Why I could be wrong
Brissett has had about a week to learn the offense, and the Ravens are just 1-3 at home. Baltimore’s pass rush is only middle of the pack, so if the Ravens can’t take advantage of that Chargers line, Herbert has the arm to keep this inside the number. A backdoor cover is also very real with a total this low. This line opened at Ravens -3 and has climbed, so if it hits 5.5 or 6 I’d stay away.
Projected score: Ravens 23, Chargers 16
The Pick: Ravens -4.5 (-110)
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