Chicago Bulls at Minnesota Timberwolves
Saturday, November 14, 2026
8:00 PM ET, Target Center
Minnesota is a 14.5-point favorite at most books, with the total at 235.5. My play is the Timberwolves -14.5.
Fourteen and a half is a lot of points in the NBA. It’s not enough for this game.
The Wolves lost their star and got better against the number. Anthony Edwards hasn’t played since Oct. 26 because of a knee injury, and ESPN’s injury report lists a projected return around Dec. 21. Donte DiVincenzo (Achilles) is out too. Minnesota is 6-2 since Edwards went down and has won five straight, the latest a 133-94 beatdown of Dallas on Thursday that was its most lopsided win of the season. Against the spread, the Wolves are 11-1, the best mark in the league according to TeamRankings.
LaMelo Ball has slid into the lead role nicely, posting 22 points and a season-high nine assists against the Mavericks. Ayo Dosunmu (18.1 points a game, hitting 47% from deep) has been a revelation, and the bench keeps showing up. Bones Hyland dropped 24 on Dallas.
The real story is the defense. Minnesota allows 104.8 points per 100 possessions, the best mark in the NBA, and holds opponents to the league’s lowest effective field goal percentage, a stat that gives extra credit for threes. Rudy Gobert is still swallowing rebounds at 11.5 a night, and the Wolves are third in offensive rebounding, so they get second chances on top of everything else.
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Chicago is running on fumes. The Bulls finally won a game on Friday, beating Atlanta 125-117 in overtime to snap an eight-game losing streak. Norman Powell scored 33, nine of them in the extra period, and Josh Giddey had 14 assists. Good for them. Now they have to get on a plane and play the best defense in the league less than 24 hours later.
They’re also missing their top rookie. Caleb Wilson (18.9 points a game, second on the team) had surgery on a fractured right hand and will be reevaluated in three weeks. Dailyn Swain and Tobe Awaka are out, and starting center Jalen Smith is day-to-day with a hand issue.
Even at full strength, Chicago has the worst defense in the NBA by Basketball Reference’s numbers, giving up 122.5 points per 100 possessions. The Bulls play the fastest pace in the league, but they’ve made about 29% of their threes as a team, and Chicago’s 2-9 record comes with a point differential of more than 13 points a game in the wrong direction.
The case against me. Big NBA spreads are scary for one reason: garbage time. If Minnesota is up 25 after three quarters, the starters sit, and a loose fourth quarter can turn a cover into a push or worse. The Bulls are also 6-5 against the spread, so they’ve hung around more often than their record suggests. Edwards being out also leaves the Wolves without their best closer if this turns into a tight game. It’s still early in the season, too, so these efficiency numbers are working off a small sample. A few books are showing -13.5, so shop for the lower number if you can.
But this is the second night of a back-to-back after an overtime game, against a rested home team that has covered 11 of 12 times. The gap in efficiency between these two teams is close to 26 points per 100 possessions. I’ll lay it.
Projected score: Timberwolves 127, Bulls 107
The Pick: Timberwolves -14.5
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