Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans
Saturday, November 14, 2026
7:00 PM ET, Smoothie King Center
The Nuggets are 12.5-point favorites at most books with a total of 234.5, and my play is Denver -12.5.
New Orleans gave up 142 points on Friday night. That was the fourth straight game the Pelicans allowed at least 138, and now they get about 24 hours to recover before Nikola Jokic shows up.
The Pelicans are leaking from every pipe
New Orleans is 4-9 and has dropped five in a row, and the losses have been ugly: by 16 at the Clippers, by 51 at Golden State, by 34 at home to Brooklyn, and by 31 at home to Memphis on Friday. The Grizzlies hit 18 of 45 threes in that one and matched an NBA record with 10 players in double figures. That’s what a defense with no answers looks like.
The season numbers say the same thing. The Pelicans give up 121.5 points per 100 possessions, the third-worst mark in the league, per Basketball Reference. Their net rating sits at -8.8, which means they lose by about nine points for every 100 trips down the floor. They also take fewer threes than any team in the NBA, so when they fall behind, they don’t have a fast way to catch up. They went 7 of 31 from deep on Friday.
The injury list is long. Friday’s official report had Trey Murphy III (knee), Dejounte Murray (ankle), Yves Missi (knee), Trendon Watford (ankle) and Bryce McGowens (elbow) all out. Zion Williamson is still putting up numbers, 21.7 a night, and Saddiq Bey dropped 30 on Friday. But two guys can’t guard five.
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Denver shows up rested and dangerous
The schedule tilts hard toward Denver. The Nuggets last played Wednesday, a 123-118 win in Memphis where Jamal Murray scored 30, 17 of them in the fourth quarter. Jokic added 27 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists, and Cameron Johnson chipped in 23. Denver has won five of its last seven.
Murray is averaging 26.2 points, and Jokic is running the offense at 9.0 assists a night. Against a defense that is tired, thin and already broken, that duo should get whatever look it wants. Denver scores 117.6 points per 100 possessions, comfortably above the league average.
These teams have met twice already. Denver won both, 141-135 in overtime at home and 104-91 in New Orleans on Oct. 29.
Why I could be wrong
Denver’s own defense is nothing special. The Nuggets allow 116.4 per 100 possessions, and their overall net rating is just +1.2, which isn’t the profile of a team that wins by 13 every night. They also play slow, so there are fewer possessions to build a big lead. If Zion gets to the rim early and the Nuggets coast, this could be a nine-point game that never gets out of hand. The market agrees with me, too. The AP preview listed Denver at -11.5, most books now sit at -12.5, and about three of every four tickets are on the Nuggets, so the cheap number is gone.
Still, the Pelicans are on no rest and short-handed, and they’ve lost their last four games by 16 or more. I’ll pay the number.
Projected score: Nuggets 123, Pelicans 107
The Pick: Nuggets -12.5 (-105)
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