Dallas Mavericks at Cleveland Cavaliers
Saturday, November 14, 2026
7:30 PM ET, Rocket Arena
Cleveland is a 2.5-point favorite at most books with the total at 231.5, and my play is Dallas +2.5.
Who wants to be the team that just got its doors blown off? Dallas lost by 39 in Minnesota on Thursday night. Cleveland gave up 133 in Miami on Friday night, then got on a plane. Only one of those teams has had a day to put it behind them.
The Cavs are running on fumes. Cleveland is 6-7, 4-6 over its last 10, and this is the second night of a back-to-back. Friday’s loss in Miami was rough. Bam Adebayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 37 apiece, and Davion Mitchell handed out 17 assists. The Cavs did it without Evan Mobley, who sat for the first time this season with a sprained left big toe. Kenny Atkinson sounded calm about it: “The MRI came back clean. Sprained, definitely sore, but we don’t expect it to be a long-term thing at all.” Not long-term isn’t the same as playing tonight, though, and ESPN still lists him out. Sam Merrill (elbow) and Nae’Qwan Tomlin (back) are also out. Without Mobley, a defense that already gives up 116 points per 100 possessions loses its best eraser.
The schedule has been lying about Dallas. Both teams have a +1.0 net rating, meaning each outscores opponents by about a point per 100 trips. The difference is who they’ve played. Basketball Reference’s schedule-adjusted rating (it grades margin against the quality of opponents) has Dallas at +4.2 and Cleveland at -0.6. That’s close to a five-point gap between a team that’s faced a tough slate and one that’s had it easy. Dallas also has the better defense, allowing 112.7 per 100 to Cleveland’s 116.0.
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Flagg should bounce back. Cooper Flagg went for 43 against Indiana before Minnesota held him to 12. He’s averaging 24.6 points, 6.9 rebounds and 6.5 assists. That’s a lot of offense to run through one player, and against a tired, Mobley-less frontcourt he should get to his spots. Kyrie Irving has averaged 17.7 points over his last 10, and Zaccharie Risacher gave Dallas 22 off the bench even in the blowout.
The case against me. Cleveland can shoot. Almost half its shots come from deep, and the Cavs give up 14 made threes a game. If Donovan Mitchell (nearly 23 a night) and James Harden get hot from outside, legs won’t matter much. Dallas is also just 2-3 on the road and is still missing Dereck Lively II after foot surgery, while Max Christie is questionable with a sprained ankle. Dallas wilted after halftime in Minnesota, getting outscored 36-17 in the third quarter, and I’m betting that was a one-off. Cleveland’s injury report wasn’t in yet at 11 p.m. ET Friday, so check on Mobley before tipoff. If he plays, the edge shrinks.
About 69% of tickets are on Cleveland. I’ll take the points with the fresher team that’s played the tougher schedule.
Projected score: Mavericks 116, Cavaliers 113
The Pick: Mavericks +2.5 (-114)
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