Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat
Saturday, November 14, 2026
8:00 PM ET, Kaseya Center
Detroit is a 4.5-point favorite at most books with the total at 229.5, and my play is Pistons -4.5.
Fifty-two points, 11 assists, zero turnovers. Cade Cunningham’s double-overtime masterpiece in Washington on Thursday was the first 50-10 game without a turnover since the league started tracking turnovers in 1977-78, per OptaSTATS. It also cost him 48 minutes, and that’s the question hanging over this one. Do the Pistons have enough left in the tank to handle a hot Heat team at home?
I think they do, because Miami’s tank is emptier. The Heat beat Cleveland 133-121 on Friday night, and it took a lot. Bam Adebayo played 38 minutes and finished with 37 points and 14 rebounds. Giannis Antetokounmpo matched him with 37. Davion Mitchell logged 39 minutes and dished 17 assists. Now they do it again 24 hours later, while Detroit at least got Friday off.
Detroit’s defense travels
The Pistons are 8-3 and 5-1 on the road, and their defense is why. They allow 107.9 points per 100 possessions, the fourth-best mark in the league per Basketball Reference, and they outscore teams by 7.7 per 100. Miami sits at -2.8 and gives up 116.5 per 100. The Heat win with shootouts. They play at the third-fastest pace in the NBA, and that suits a Detroit team that can hang points on you and then get stops when it counts.
Ausar Thompson is the piece that makes it work. He posted his first career triple-double on Thursday (17 points, 11 rebounds, 11 assists), and he leads Detroit in rebounding at 8.7 a game. He’s the kind of long, active defender who can make Giannis work for every touch.
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These teams met on Oct. 24 in this building, and Detroit won 128-111 behind 23 from John Collins. Giannis scored 36 in that game and it didn’t matter.
What could go wrong
The paint. Jalen Duren is out with a strained right hamstring, and Isaiah Joe (hip) is out too. That leaves Paul Reed and Collins to deal with Adebayo and Antetokounmpo, who combined to shoot 28 of 39 on Friday. If those two live at the rim again, Detroit’s elite defense stops looking elite. Miami has also won three straight, so this isn’t a team that’s going to roll over. And the Pistons’ own minutes from Thursday are real: Thompson played 43, Daniss Jenkins 42 and Duncan Robinson 41.
Klay Thompson (ankle) and Pelle Larsson (illness) sat on Friday, and Miami hadn’t filed its injury report for tonight as of late Friday, so keep an eye on that. The market has also nudged the total up from 226.5 to around 229.5 while keeping Detroit at -4.5. Laying 4.5 with the better team, the better defense and the extra day of rest is a price I’ll take.
Projected score: Pistons 117, Heat 109
The Pick: Pistons -4.5 (-114)
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