UFC 154 Picks
Date: Saturday, November 17, 2012
Where: Bell Centre Montreal, Quebec
Time: 10pm ET on Pay per View
by Evergreen, MMA Handicapper, Predictem.com
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Injuries have been a big part of the UFC storylines over the last few months but we finally get some good news on the injury front as Georges St. Pierre returns to the Octagon this Saturday to defend his UFC Welterweight Title against Carlos Condit.Condit, formerly the WEC Welterweight Champ, took out Nate Diaz in a five round war in February to earn the interim title and now has the chance to drop the interim tag by defeating one of the greatest fighters in MMA history.
St. Pierre is a favorite to continue his domination of this division, especially in front of his home crowd, but will we see the same champion this weekend after nearly 19 months away from the ring, or will rust and a hungry challenger prove too much to overcome?The card for UFC 154 is a good one so grab the PPV and dont forget to head out to an online MMA sportsbook to get some bets down.
Here is a breakdown of the top two fights on Saturdays main card.
Johny Bigg Rigg Hendricks (13-1)(-150) v. Martin Hitman Kampmann (20-5)(+120)
A lot of the focus will naturally fall on St. Pierre and the title bout but look for this matchup between welterweights to potentially earn Fight of the Night honors.Hendricks v. Kampmann is a great style matchup as the former Division 1 All-American wrestler takes on the Danish striker with KO power.Hendricks is the #4 welterweight by Sherdogs rankings with Kampmann at #6 so both men are capable are earning a title shot should they put together a dominant performance.Hendricks is likely a bit closer to a title shot after a 12 second knockout of Jon Fitch at UFC 141 and a decision victory against Josh Koscheck in May but Kampmann is riding a three fight win streak himself.Hendricks is among the most aggressive wrestlers in the UFC, averaging over five takedown attempts per bout but also possesses some pop with his striking as Fitch found out.
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Kampmann is a 15 fight UFC veteran who has seen just about everything and provides a tough test for the wrestling of Hendricks as Kampann has stuffed nearly 80% of opponents takedowns.Kampmann is a volume striker but is well versed in submissions, especially chokes and has earned seven of his twenty wins via submission.Hendricks is respected as a standup fighter but he wont want to simply stand and trade to win this one.Look for this one to stay standing only if Kampmann has the range and can score while keeping Hendricks guessing with the takedowns.Eventually, Hendricks should find the key to get Kampann on the ground he has the game to keep him there once that happens.
My Pick to Win: Hendricks (Decision)
Carlos Natural Born Killer Condit (28-5)(+265) v. Georges Rush St. Pierre (22-2)(-350)
Fight fans have long waited for St. Pierres return and have also waited for a worthy challenge to the Welterweight Title.They get both as St. Pierre goes for his seventh consecutive title defense against the interim title holder and #2 ranked welterweight.Will there be rust? Probably, but that alone isnt enough to take the favorite tag from St. Pierre as there are no harder workers in MMA than the Champ and there has been nothing but good news coming out of his camp regarding his rehab.St.Pierre may have to fight some anxiety as he certainly will be emotional about his return and about doing so in front of his fellow Canadians.Still, St. Pierre was so far and away the best 170 pounder that even a less than vintage Rush should be able to handle Condit.That is not to say this one will be easy as Condit has won five consecutive fights after losing his UFC debut and has championship experience while with the WEC.St. Pierre often owned a cardio advantage against previous opponents but that may not be the case this weekend as Condit has very good endurance and has been able to maintain his power in deeper fights as well.St. Pierre is regarded as one of the most well rounded fighters but Condit can lay some claim at least to diversity of strengths as the interim champ has thirteen wins by KO as well as thirteen by submission and his subs range from chokes to kimuras to heel-hooks so he knows how to exploit what is in front of him on the way to winning.
All in all, this one is very evenly matches in theory but St. Pierre is a nine out of ten in all facets with Condit a seven out of then and that doesnt bode well for the challenger.Give Georges a few rounds to get a feel for his timing and get the butterflies out but he should start to take over sooner than later.I see this one going the distance as neither fighter will probably sell out too much early on and its a 50/50 that Condit will either win an early round or at least feel as if he did so the gameplans will stay in place deep into the fight.This one is close and could feature some moments for the challenger but St. Pierre is motivated to regain his undisputed spot at the top of the MMA game.
My Pick to Win St. Pierre (Decision)
Good Luck!
Check out this list of UFC 154 wagering odds and prop bet offerings at Bovada!
Mark “The Machine” Hominick -325
Pablo “The Scarecrow” Garza +250
Francis “Limitless” Carmont -280
“Filthy” Tom Lawlor +220
Constantinos Philippou -240
Nick “The Promise” Ring +190
Johny “Bigg Rigg” Hendricks -150
Martin “Hitman” Kampmann +120
Johny “Bigg Rigg” Hendricks vs Martin “Hitman” Kampmann
Props
Johny “Bigg Rigg” Hendricks wins inside distance 14/5
Johny “Bigg Rigg” Hendricks wins by 3 round decision 29/20
Martin “Hitman” Kampmann wins inside distance 29/10
Martin “Hitman” Kampmann wins by 3 round decision 29/10
Draw 40/1
Fight goes the distance -175
Fight does not go the distance +125
Over Rounds O 2½ (-190)
Under Rounds U 2½ (+135)
UFC Welterweight Title
Georges “Rush” St. Pierre -350
Carlos “Natural Born Killer” Condit +265
Georges “Rush” St. Pierre vs Carlos “Natural Born Killer”
Condit Props
Georges “Rush” St. Pierre wins inside distance 29/10
Georges “Rush” St. Pierre wins by decision 5/8
Carlos “Natural Born Killer” Condit wins inside distance 4/1
Carlos “Natural Born Killer” Condit wins by decision 7/1
Draw 45/1
Georges “Rush” St. Pierre in Round 1 9/1
Georges “Rush” St. Pierre in Round 2 14/1
Georges “Rush” St. Pierre in Round 3 16/1
Georges “Rush” St. Pierre in Round 4 22/1
Georges “Rush” St. Pierre in Round 5 30/1
Georges “Rush” St. Pierre wins by decision 5/8
Carlos “Natural Born Killer” Condit in Round 1 12/1
Carlos “Natural Born Killer” Condit in Round 2 15/1
Carlos “Natural Born Killer” Condit in Round 3 20/1
Carlos “Natural Born Killer” Condit in Round 4 25/1
Carlos “Natural Born Killer” Condit in Round 5 33/1
Carlos “Natural Born Killer” Condit wins by decision 7/1
Draw 45/1
Georges “Rush” St. Pierre wins by decision 5/8
Georges “Rush” St. Pierre wins by KO, TKO or DQ 5/1
Georges “Rush” St. Pierre wins by submission 6/1
Carlos “Natural Born Killer” Condit wins by decision 7/1
Carlos “Natural Born Killer” Condit wins by KO, TKO or DQ 5/1
Carlos “Natural Born Killer” Condit wins by submission 12/1
Draw or Technical draw 45/1
Yes (Fight completes 1 full round) -1200
No (Fight does not complete 1 full round) +550
Yes (Fight completes 2 full rounds) -425
No (Fight does not complete 2 full rounds) +260
Yes (Fight completes 3 full rounds) -300
No (Fight does not complete 3 full rounds) +200
Yes (Fight completes 4 full rounds) -240
No (Fight does not complete 4 full rounds) +165
Yes (Fight goes the distance) -205
No (Fight does not go the distance) +145
Over Rounds O 4½ (-210)
Under Rounds U 4½ (+150)
Additional Props
How Many Canadians will win at UFC 154
Over / Under 4.5
Will UFC 154 Sellout?
Yes -140
No +100
How many PPV Buys will UFC 154 Have?
Over / Under 800,000
Who will win Fight of the Night at UFC 154?
Johny “Bigg Rigg” Hendricks vs Martin “Hitman” Kampmann
3/1
Georges “Rush” St. Pierre vs Carlos “Natural Born Killer”
Condit 5/1
Any Other Fight 4/15
Who will win Knockout of the Night at UFC 154?
Johny “Bigg Rigg” Hendricks 6/1
Georges “Rush” St. Pierre 7/1
Carlos “Natural Born Killer” Condit 10/1
Martin “Hitman” Kampmann 20/1
Any Other Fighter 1/4
Who will win Submission of the Night at UFC 154?
Georges “Rush” St. Pierre 7/1
Carlos “Natural Born Killer” Condit 9/1
Martin “Hitman” Kampmann 12/1
Johny “Bigg Rigg” Hendricks 20/1
Any Other Fighter 1/6
