Joe Jensen

Ashcraft vs. Nola is a clearer mismatch than the current moneyline implies. Pittsburgh sits at -106 while Nola carries a 5.58 ERA and a four-seam fastball generating a .448 xwOBA — the price hasn’t caught up to those numbers. The analysis is inside.

Baz’s four-seamer generates just a 13.1% whiff rate despite sitting at 96.1 mph — hard stuff that isn’t missing bats against a Chicago lineup posting elite xwOBA marks against right-handers. Baltimore is priced at -134 with a -26 run differential while the White Sox sit at +114 with a positive run differential and Burke’s 2.01 WAR leading the road side. The pick is inside.

The Padres’ .662 OPS is the kind of number that doesn’t threaten a reliable starter in a pitcher-friendly park. The total is sitting at 8 with the under priced at -115 — a number the Dodgers’ depleted lineup and Petco’s 0.92 park factor are both pushing against. See how this one plays out.

The bullpen gap between these two teams is real — San Francisco’s relief corps is taxed after back-to-back games, while Atlanta’s late-inning structure, even shorthanded, holds an edge. The total is posted at 7.5 with a pitcher-friendly Oracle Park factor of 0.92 and Sale’s elite 1.05 WHIP anchoring the run environment. Find out which way this one goes.

Civale vs. Aldegheri is a clearer mismatch than the 9.5 total implies, with both starters carrying ERAs north of 4.80 and neither capable of locking down innings consistently. The total at 9.5 (Under -108) is sitting a half-run above the 9.3 projected combined run total, in a park that suppresses scoring and without Mike Trout in the Angels lineup. The edge is explained inside.

Leahy’s 4-seam fastball is surrendering a .445 xwOBA-against — a damaging number for a pitcher who leans on it as his primary weapon against a red-hot Marlins lineup. The total is posted at 9.5 with the Under juiced to -124, but the combined projection sits at 9.1 runs with the Cardinals’ cold offense and a 3.09 ERA arm on the other side. The analysis is inside.

Rate Field’s mild pitcher tilt doesn’t help a starter who can’t find the zone — Avila’s 5.7 BB/9 is a structural problem against a lineup that has hit 115 home runs this season. The moneyline sits at White Sox -142, steep enough that the margin between correct side and correct price is the entire debate. The pick is inside.

Minnesota’s .733 OPS and Colorado’s .741 OPS are the kind of numbers that don’t sustain back-to-back offensive explosions — recency is doing most of the heavy lifting here. The Over is priced at +102 while the Under sits at -124, a spread that reflects how aggressively the market has chased the first two box scores. The angle is inside.

Hancock vs. Williams is a clearer mismatch against depleted offenses than the 7.5 total implies. Cleveland is missing Ramirez and DeLauter, Seattle is without Donovan, and both team OPS figures sit near the bottom of the AL — yet the Under is priced at just -115. The full read is inside.