Quick Recap:
• Record: 9-3
• Units: +10.3
• Best Win: Texas Rangers ML (+2.0u)
• Tough Loss: Under 9 (-2.4u)
Joe Jensen posted a strong Sunday, going 9-3 on the graded card for a net result of +10.3 Units. The day’s success wasn’t built on a single big swing — it was the product of consistent under positioning across multiple games, with the totals side of the card doing the heavy lifting. The two losses that stung most were both unders that went over, and both carried meaningful exposure. But the wins were clean enough and distributed well enough across the card that the damage was contained and the profitable plays dominated. Higher-confidence allocations landed on the right side more often than not, and that’s ultimately what separates a good day from a great one.
Reds at Pirates
Pick: Under 8.5 | Result: Lost | Net: -0.98u
The series finale in Pittsburgh turned into a Ryan O’Hearn showcase. O’Hearn went 3-for-5 with two home runs and four RBI, including a 421-foot go-ahead shot in the fifth and a three-run blast in the eighth following a 65-minute rain delay. The Pirates erupted for four runs in the second and four more in the eighth to post a 9-4 final — well clear of the 8.5 number. The rain delay may have disrupted bullpen rhythm on the Cincinnati side, and Pierce Johnson’s walk-heavy eighth was the decisive blow. After backing Cincinnati’s ML in game one of the series, the model went back to the total in the finale and got burned by O’Hearn’s career night. A light 0.98u risk kept the damage manageable.
Nationals at Orioles
Pick: Under 9 | Result: Lost | Net: -2.40u
This was the most costly miss of the day at 2.40u risked. Luis García Jr. was the entire story — three hits, two home runs, a double, and five RBI in a 6-4 Washington win. Kyle Bradish retired the first eight Nationals hitters and looked locked in early, but García’s eruption in the third and fifth innings put the game away. Pete Alonso and Jackson Holliday each hit two-run homers for Baltimore, but Washington’s bullpen held the lead and PJ Poulin closed it out. The final of 10 combined runs cleared the 9 with room to spare. After the model correctly backed the Nationals’ ML in game one, returning to the under in the series finale was a reasonable read on a number that looked inflated — García simply had a career-type afternoon. Variance, but an expensive one.
Rangers at Jays
Pick: Texas Rangers ML | Result: Won | Net: +2.00u
Texas completed a four-game sweep of Toronto with a 3-2 win that came down to a wild pitch in the ninth. Pinch-runner Jarred Kelenic scored from second when Louis Varland’s first pitch to Corey Seager bounced away from Alejandro Kirk. It was a low-scoring, tightly contested game that required some late drama, but the Rangers got there. Joc Pederson hit a solo homer and Elias Diaz drove in a run to give Texas enough cushion until the ninth-inning sequence sealed it. The Blue Jays are clearly struggling — four straight losses at home — and the Rangers were the right side. A clean 2.00u win at +114.
Diamondbacks at Rays
Pick: Under 7.5 | Result: Won | Net: +2.00u
Drew Rasmussen threw six shutout innings and Tampa Bay handled Arizona 5-1 to complete the sweep. Junior Caminero homered for a career-best fourth consecutive game, and Cedric Mullins and Ben Williamson added solo shots. Arizona’s only run came in the eighth on a Ketel Marte homer. The Rays were in control from the first inning and never let the D-backs get comfortable. Six combined runs against the 7.5 was a clean result — the pitching matchup played out exactly as modeled. After losing the Arizona ML in game one of the series, this under in the finale was a strong bounce-back position.
Astros at Tigers
Pick: Houston Astros ML | Result: Won | Net: +2.00u
Houston needed extra innings to get there, but the Astros delivered a 7-5 win in 10. Detroit led 3-1 heading into the late innings, but Isaac Paredes tied it with a solo homer in the eighth. In the 10th, Kenley Jansen walked Yordan Alvarez, Paredes singled, and Christian Walker launched a three-run homer off Jansen’s cutter to make it 7-3. Spencer Torkelson hit a two-run shot in the bottom half, but it wasn’t enough. Paredes was the engine — 3-for-5 with a homer and two RBI. The Astros had won the prior game in this series as well, and the model stayed on them correctly. A competitive, multi-lead-change game that required patience, but the ML held.
Mariners at Guardians
Pick: Under 7.5 | Result: Lost | Net: -2.30u
Cleveland trailed 4-1 heading into the eighth and looked like a clean under win — then the Guardians erupted for five runs in the bottom of the eighth to walk off with a 6-5 final. Rhys Hoskins delivered a two-run double down the left-field line as the key blow, and Chase DeLauter, activated from the IL earlier that day, contributed two hits and two RBI in the comeback. Seattle had controlled the game through seven innings, and the under was on track. This is a variance loss — the bet was well-positioned through seven and got undone by a single-inning collapse. The prior under on this matchup had cashed, making this a tough back-to-back result. At 2.30u risked, it was the second-largest loss of the day.
Cubs at Brewers
Pick: Under 8 | Result: Won | Net: +2.00u
A tight, low-scoring series finale in Milwaukee went to extras and finished 4-3 Cubs — seven combined runs, well inside the 8. Seiya Suzuki singled in two runs in the 10th to break a 1-1 tie, and Jordan Wicks got a game-ending double play with the bases loaded to preserve the win. Gary Sanchez hit a solo homer for Milwaukee’s only run through regulation. The pitching on both sides kept the game contained through nine innings, and the extra-inning format didn’t produce the kind of run surge that typically threatens an under. After losing an under on this same matchup the prior day, the model came back to the same number and got it right in the series finale.
Rockies at Twins
Pick: Under 9 | Result: Won | Net: +1.00u
Connor Prielipp struck out a career-high 10 in six innings and Ryan Kreidler hit a go-ahead homer in the seventh as Minnesota edged Colorado 3-2. Kody Clemens also went deep, and Andrew Morris worked 1⅓ hitless innings in relief to earn the win. Five combined runs against a 9 was a comfortable margin. The Rockies managed two runs on six hits — the pitching environment held. After losing a Twins ML bet in the prior game of this series when Colorado won 8-5, the model pivoted to the total and found a much cleaner result.
Marlins at Cardinals
Pick: Under 9.5 | Result: Won | Net: +2.00u
Kyle Leahy was sharp for St. Louis — he didn’t allow a hit until the fifth inning and finished with one run on two hits. Bryan Torres hit a two-run homer in the second to give the Cardinals a 2-0 lead, and that was all Leahy needed. Miami pulled one back on back-to-back doubles in the fifth, but the Cardinals’ bullpen held the 2-1 final. Three combined runs against a 9.5 was dominant — this was the clearest under result of the day. The model had already cashed an under 8.5 on this same matchup the prior day, and Leahy’s performance made it back-to-back wins on the total in St. Louis.
Athletics at Angels
Pick: Under 9.5 | Result: Won | Net: +1.00u
Josh Lowe’s first career grand slam in the second inning was the only offense the Angels needed in a 4-1 win. Lowe sent a high cutter 403 feet to right-center off Aaron Civale, and the Angels’ pitching staff held the Athletics to a single run the rest of the way. Five combined runs against a 9.5 was a comfortable cushion. The model had backed the Angels’ ML in the prior game of this series and won — the pivot to the total in the finale was equally well-positioned.
Braves at Giants
Pick: Under 7.5 | Result: Won | Net: +2.00u
Robbie Ray outdueled Chris Sale in a Cy Young matchup and San Francisco held off Atlanta 3-2. Ray allowed just four hits and an unearned run across eight innings — a dominant performance. The Giants scored twice in the sixth and once in the seventh, and Caleb Kilian closed it out despite a tense ninth in which Matt Olson scored to make it 3-2. Five combined runs against a 7.5 was a clean result. After losing an Atlanta ML bet in the prior game of this series, the model returned with an under and got the pitching duel it was looking for. Ray versus Sale was always going to be a low-run environment, and it played out exactly that way.
Dodgers at Padres
Pick: Under 8 | Result: Won | Net: +2.00u
Los Angeles took two of three from San Diego with a 4-2 win in the series finale. The Dodgers broke through in the fifth — Freddie Freeman drew a bases-loaded walk off a suddenly wild Michael King, and Mookie Betts followed with a two-run single to make it 4-1. Manny Machado hit a solo homer for San Diego, but the Padres couldn’t generate enough offense against the Dodgers’ pitching. Six combined runs against an 8 was a solid margin. After losing an under on this same matchup in the prior series game, the model came back to the total and got the low-scoring result it needed.
Beer Money & Parlay Plays
The side-play card went 1-1 on Sunday — these are lean, low-conviction recommendations with no units assigned and no impact on the official record or unit total.
Phillies at Mets
The over 8 lean at -115 cashed as Philadelphia edged New York 5-4 — nine combined runs cleared the number. A competitive, back-and-forth game that produced just enough offense to get the over across the line.
Royals at Sox
The Chicago White Sox ML lean at -142 didn’t hold — Kansas City won 5-4. The White Sox couldn’t close it out, and the Royals took the series finale despite being the road team against a heavy home favorite.
Missed Reads: None — both losses showed reasonable premises that failed on execution or late-game variance.
Variance / Competitive Losses: Nationals at Orioles (Under 9 — Luis García Jr.’s five-RBI eruption); Mariners at Guardians (Under 7.5 — five-run eighth inning after leading through seven); Reds at Pirates (Under 8.5 — O’Hearn’s two-homer night and rain-delay bullpen collapse)
Clean Wins: Rangers ML, Diamondbacks at Rays Under 7.5, Astros ML, Cubs at Brewers Under 8, Rockies at Twins Under 9, Marlins at Cardinals Under 9.5, Athletics at Angels Under 9.5, Braves at Giants Under 7.5, Dodgers at Padres Under 8
Sunday’s graded card was a strong day built on disciplined total positioning. Nine of twelve plays cashed, and the wins were distributed across multiple confidence tiers and unit allocations. The three losses were all unders that went over — two of them (Mariners/Guardians, Nationals/Orioles) were on track late before late-inning offense flipped the result. The Reds/Pirates under was the one game where the scoring environment broke down early, though O’Hearn’s performance was the kind of individual variance that’s difficult to model around. The under-heavy approach paid off in seven of ten total plays, and the ML positions on Texas and Houston both delivered. At +10.3 units on a 9-3 card, this was one of the cleaner Sunday performances of the season.
