Quick Recap:
• Record: 3-3
• Units: +2.1
• Best Win: Seattle Mariners ML (+2.0u)
• Tough Loss: Washington Nationals ML (-1.5u)
Joe Jensen closed May 14 with a +2.1-unit profit on a 3-3 record, a result that underscores the importance of unit allocation over win percentage alone. The graded card featured three two-unit plays and three one-unit positions, and the difference came down to which side of the ledger carried the heavier exposure. All three two-unit plays—Seattle, St. Louis, and Milwaukee—cashed, banking +6.0 units combined. The three losses, each risking between 1.00u and 1.47u, cost -3.85 units total. The issue wasn’t volume; it was where the confidence landed, and on this night, the top of the card delivered.
Mariners at Astros
Pick: Seattle Mariners ML (-126) | Result: Won +2.00u | Final: Mariners 8, Astros 3
After dropping game one of this series, Seattle bounced back emphatically in Houston. Luke Raley opened the scoring with a three-run homer in the first inning—his 10th of the year and third of the road trip—staking the Mariners to an early 3-0 lead. Mitch Garver, filling in for the injured Cal Raleigh, added a two-run shot in the fourth that extended the advantage to 5-1. The Astros got some life from Yordan Alvarez, who went 3-for-3 with a homer, double, and two runs, but Seattle’s offense was too much. Cole Young and J.P. Crawford added insurance runs late, and the Mariners cruised to an 8-3 victory. This was a clean two-unit win, risking 2.52u to return +2.00u, and it set the tone for the night’s heavier positions.
Cardinals at Athletics
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals ML (+100) | Result: Won +2.00u | Final: Cardinals 5, Athletics 4
St. Louis found itself trailing 4-3 heading into the ninth inning in West Sacramento, but Jordan Walker delivered when it mattered most. Iván Herrera tied the game with a single to left that scored Thomas Saggese, then Walker doubled home the go-ahead run to put the Cardinals up 5-4. Walker finished 2-for-5 with a solo homer, a double, and two RBIs, carrying the offense after the Athletics had seized a 4-3 lead in the seventh on homers from Nick Kurtz and Zack Gelof. The Cardinals had backed the Athletics the day prior and won; this time, flipping to St. Louis at even money paid off with another two-unit cash, risking 2.00u to return +2.00u. The late-inning execution made this a clean win.
Nationals at Reds
Pick: Washington Nationals ML (+136) | Result: Lost -1.47u | Final: Reds 15, Nationals 1
This one was never competitive. After winning the first two games of the series, Washington ran into Chase Burns and a Cincinnati offense that erupted for 15 runs. Burns threw six scoreless innings, allowing just two hits while striking out seven, and JJ Bleday went deep twice, driving in six runs. The Reds scored two in the second, four in the fourth, three in the fifth, and kept pouring it on. Washington managed just one run in the eighth and finished with one hit of consequence. The Nationals had been riding momentum, but the pitching and offense both collapsed. This was a clear missed read, risking 1.47u on a dog that never showed up.
Padres at Brewers
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers ML (-138) | Result: Won +2.00u | Final: Brewers 7, Padres 1
Milwaukee capped a 5-1 homestand with a dominant performance against San Diego. Kyle Harrison struck out seven over five scoreless innings, lowering his ERA to 2.09, and the Brewers jumped on Griffin Canning early, scoring three runs in each of the first two innings. Luis Rengifo drove in three, Andrew Vaughn added a two-run double, and Milwaukee never looked back. The Padres managed just one run and couldn’t threaten after the early deficit. After losing to Milwaukee the day before, the model went back to the Brewers at a higher unit allocation, and the edge held. This was the third two-unit winner of the night, risking 2.76u to bank +2.00u, and it sealed the profitable card.
Phillies at Sox
Pick: Boston Red Sox ML (+100) | Result: Lost -1.00u | Final: Phillies 3, Red Sox 1
Boston had won game one of this series and looked poised to take the rubber match, but Kyle Schwarber’s towering two-run homer in the eighth inning broke a scoreless tie and put Philadelphia ahead for good. Schwarber’s 18th home run of the season—his seventh in seven games—traveled an estimated 417 feet and cleared the visiting bullpen in right field. Boston managed just one run in the eighth and couldn’t mount a comeback. The Red Sox offense, which had been productive the night before, went quiet when it mattered. This was a competitive loss, with the game scoreless through seven before Schwarber’s blast decided it. Risking 1.00u at even money, the loss cost -1.00u.
Royals at Sox
Pick: Kansas City Royals ML (-138) | Result: Lost -1.38u | Final: White Sox 6, Royals 2
Kansas City couldn’t build on a 1-0 lead after the first inning, and Chicago seized control early. The White Sox scored two in the first, two more in the third, and added single runs in the fourth and eighth. Randal Grichuk did the damage with a homer and four RBIs, while Chase Meidroth added two hits and a run. The Royals managed just two runs and couldn’t generate enough offense to stay competitive. After losing a close game to the White Sox the day before, the model went back to Kansas City at -138, risking 1.38u, but the offense never materialized. This was a missed read, with the Royals failing to deliver on the higher-priced favorite position.
Beer Money & Parlay Plays
The side plays went 3-1 on the night, all lean recommendations with no units assigned.
Giants at Dodgers
Los Angeles (-250) handled San Francisco 5-2, covering the heavy chalk with a clean home win.
Rockies at Pirates
Pittsburgh (-168) rolled past Colorado 7-2, taking advantage of the Rockies’ road struggles.
Tigers at Mets
New York (-180) cruised to a 9-4 victory over Detroit, with the offense doing plenty of damage at home.
Cubs at Braves
Atlanta (-164) was shut out 2-0 by Chicago, the lone miss among the side plays.
Missed Reads: Washington Nationals, Kansas City Royals
Variance / Competitive Losses: Boston Red Sox
Clean Wins: Seattle Mariners, St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers
The graded card stayed profitable because the two-unit exposure landed on the right side. Seattle, St. Louis, and Milwaukee all delivered clean wins, banking +6.0 units combined, while the three losses—Washington, Boston, and Kansas City—cost -3.85 units. The Nationals and Royals were clear misses, with neither team competitive from the start. Boston was a tougher beat, staying scoreless through seven before Schwarber’s eighth-inning blast decided it. The difference on a 3-3 night came down to unit allocation, and the heavier confidence plays carried the card to a +2.1-unit finish.
