Quick Recap:
• Record: 5-2-1
• Units: +5.1
• Best Win: Houston Astros ML (+2.0u)
• Tough Loss: Under 8.5 (-2.1u)
Joe Jensen posted a strong Friday, banking +5.1 units on a 5-2-1 graded card dated May 22, 2026. The day’s success came down to smart unit allocation and a run of clean wins on the total side — five of the eight graded plays involved unders, and four of those cashed. The two losses both came on under bets that ran into extra-inning scoring and a power surge in Baltimore, but neither burn was catastrophic given the risk distribution. When the higher-exposure positions land, as they did here, the card takes care of itself.
Astros at Cubs
Pick: Houston Astros ML (+120) — Won | Net: +2.00u
Houston opened the series in Chicago with a clean 4-2 win, and the Astros ML at plus money was one of the sharper plays on the card. Spencer Arrighetti was the story — the right-hander improved to 6-1 with five scoreless innings, allowing just two hits and four walks while punching out five. The Cubs, who entered having dropped six straight and 10 of 12, simply couldn’t solve him when it mattered. Christian Vazquez provided the offensive backbone with a homer and two RBI. Pete Crow-Armstrong gave Chicago its only real threat with a sixth-inning two-run shot, but Houston had already built a 4-0 cushion by then. Risking 1.67u to win 2.00u on a fading Cubs team at home was the right call — the edge held cleanly.
Guardians at Phillies
Pick: Under 7 (-128) — Won | Net: +2.00u
This one was a pitchers’ duel from the first pitch. Gavin Williams and Cristopher Sánchez each threw eight shutout innings in a game that clocked in at just over two hours. The only run of the night came on Kyle Manzardo’s pinch-hit homer off Jhoan Duran in the ninth — a 1-0 Cleveland win that finished well inside the number. The under at 7 required 2.56u in risk, making it the highest-exposure play on the card, and it delivered. After backing Detroit against Cleveland the day prior and taking a loss, the model pivoted to a total angle and found the right matchup. Bryce Harper’s lone extra-base hit was the most dangerous Phillies moment, and even that didn’t threaten the number.
Rays at Yankees
Pick: Under 7.5 (-114) — Won | Net: +2.00u
Gerrit Cole’s return from Tommy John surgery was the headline, and he delivered six scoreless innings — but the game ultimately finished 4-2 Tampa Bay, well inside the 7.5 number. The Yankees’ bullpen unraveled in the eighth, allowing four runs after a José Caballero error opened the door. Austin Wells had given New York a brief 1-0 lead with a fifth-inning homer, but the Rays’ 16th win in 19 games came on the back of that late burst. The under at 7.5 had already looked comfortable heading into the eighth, and the final margin never threatened it. Coming off a winning under on the Yankees the previous day, Jensen went back to the well and it paid off again. A 2.28u risk for 2.00u back — clean return.
Pirates at Jays
Pick: Under 8 (-114) — Push | Net: 0.00u
Toronto beat Pittsburgh 6-2, and the combined eight runs landed exactly on the number for a push. Kevin Gausman was solid — six-plus innings, six hits, one walk, eight strikeouts — but the Blue Jays’ offense did enough damage in the third and eighth innings to push the total to the line. Yohendrick Pinango and George Springer each had two-run doubles, and a late Pittsburgh run in the eighth got the total to eight. No harm done at 2.28u risked, but no return either. After cashing an over in Pittsburgh’s previous outing against St. Louis, the under angle here was reasonable — it just ran into a Toronto lineup that found its spots.
Mets at Marlins
Pick: Miami Marlins ML (+104) — Won | Net: +1.00u
A lighter 0.96u risk on the Marlins at plus money, and it cashed in a tight 2-1 Miami win. Eury Pérez bounced back from a rough stretch — he allowed only two hits in 6⅓ innings, both to Juan Soto, including a 449-foot first-inning blast. After that, Pérez settled in and held New York scoreless the rest of his outing. Owen Caissie drove in both Miami runs, and Esteury Ruiz provided the energy at the top of the order with a triple, double, and two runs scored. The Mets had beaten Washington the day prior, but Jensen had backed the Nationals in that game and lost — here the model correctly faded New York at a favorable number.
Tigers at Orioles
Pick: Under 8.5 (-106) — Lost | Net: -2.12u
The card’s most damaging loss. Baltimore beat Detroit 7-4, combining for 11 runs and blowing past the 8.5 number. Pete Alonso did the heavy lifting — a three-run homer in the third off Jack Flaherty (now 0-6) and a sacrifice fly in the seventh gave him four RBI on the night. Jackson Holliday added a two-run shot in the fourth to push Baltimore to a 6-4 lead. Detroit had entered on a six-game losing streak, and Flaherty’s struggles made this a tough under to hold. The Tigers managed four runs themselves, which meant both offenses contributed to the bust. A 2.12u loss is the steepest single-game damage on the card — the premise wasn’t unreasonable given Detroit’s offensive struggles, but Flaherty’s inability to suppress Baltimore’s lineup was the deciding factor.
Nationals at Braves
Pick: Under 8.5 (+110) — Lost | Net: -1.82u
This one needed extra innings to bust the number — nine regulation innings produced just three runs before things unraveled. Washington took a 4-2 lead in the 10th on a CJ Abrams two-run triple, but Atlanta answered with two in the 10th and then Chadwick Tromp’s walk-off single in the 11th ended it 5-4 Braves. The under at 8.5 was alive deep into the game, but the extra-inning format added runs that wouldn’t have existed in regulation. That’s a variance loss — the bet was competitive and reasonable through nine, and the automatic runner rule in extras is a known under-killer. At 1.82u risked, it’s a manageable hit. Jensen had also backed Washington the day prior against the Mets and lost, so this matchup carried some recent negative context.
Dodgers at Brewers
Pick: Under 8.5 (-122) — Won | Net: +2.00u
Milwaukee handled Los Angeles 5-1 in a game that was never close after the first inning. William Contreras hit a three-run homer as part of a four-run first, and Logan Henderson combined with three relievers on a three-hitter. The Dodgers managed just one run — Shohei Ohtani’s RBI — and Freddie Freeman went 0-for-2 with two walks. The final total of six runs was well inside the number. At 2.44u risked, this was the second-heaviest exposure play on the card and it returned a clean 2.00u. The Brewers have now won nine straight regular-season games against the Dodgers, and the pitching matchup clearly favored the low-scoring outcome.
Beer Money & Parlay Plays
Side plays went 1-0 on Friday — these are lean recommendations only, carry no assigned units, and have no bearing on the official graded record or unit total.
Mariners at Royals
Seattle was the lean at -134, and the Mariners delivered a clean 2-0 win over Kansas City. A low-scoring shutout result that fit the profile of a pitching-leaning side play — the Mariners’ staff held the Royals off the board entirely.
Missed Reads: Under 8.5 — Tigers at Orioles (Flaherty’s struggles and Baltimore’s power made this a tough hold from early on)
Variance / Competitive Losses: Under 8.5 — Nationals at Braves (under was alive through nine regulation innings; extra-inning scoring decided it)
Clean Wins: Astros ML, Under 7 (Guardians/Phillies), Under 7.5 (Rays/Yankees), Marlins ML, Under 8.5 (Dodgers/Brewers)
Friday’s graded card was a well-structured winning day. The under market was the engine — four cashes, one push, and two losses — and the two moneyline plays both landed at plus-money or near-even odds, adding clean unit value without heavy risk. The Baltimore game was the one genuine read that didn’t hold up; the Braves-Nationals loss was more about format than handicap. With the highest-exposure positions (Guardians/Phillies under and Dodgers/Brewers under) both cashing, the unit math worked in Jensen’s favor. A +5.1 unit day on eight graded plays is a well-distributed, well-executed result.
