Quick Recap:
• Record: 8-4
• Units: +5.7
• Best Win: Under 8.5 (+2.0u)
• Tough Loss: Texas Rangers ML (-2.5u)
Joe Jensen posted a +5.7 unit night on June 24, 2026, going 8-4 on a 12-game graded card. The day’s performance was carried by a cluster of well-placed totals and a pair of moneyline wins that held up cleanly, while two ML losses — each risking 2.48u — kept the damage from being a blowout night. The key dynamic here was unit allocation: the losses were concentrated in higher-risk positions, but the volume of winning plays at consistent 2u exposure was enough to produce a meaningful positive swing. Where the card hurt, it hurt at full weight. Where it won, it won efficiently.
Rangers at Marlins
Pick: Texas Rangers ML | Result: Lost | Net: -2.48u
The Rangers came into game two of this series having dropped the opener 6-4, and the slide continued. Miami won 4-2, with Otto López doing the bulk of the damage — a two-run homer off Cole Winn in the eighth inning sealed it. López finished 2-for-3 with a walk, two RBI, and two runs scored, raising his MLB-leading batting average to .340 and notching his 33rd multi-hit game. Xavier Edwards added an RBI single in the fifth to break a 1-1 tie. The Rangers managed just two runs and couldn’t solve Miami’s pitching. The Marlins are a major-league-best 16-5 in June, and backing Texas against this version of the Marlins at home was a tough spot. This one reads as a missed read given Miami’s dominant June form. Cost: -2.48u.
Guardians at Sox
Pick: Under 8.5 | Result: Won | Net: +2.00u
After cashing an Under 7 in game one of this series, Jensen went back to the low-scoring well in game two — and it delivered again. Cleveland beat Chicago 4-3 in extra innings, with the total landing at seven runs. Kahlil Watson was the offensive catalyst for the Guardians with a 2-for-4 line and three RBI, while Braden Montgomery’s two-run homer was the big blow for the White Sox. The game stayed locked up through five scoreless innings before runs started trickling in late. A clean, comfortable under win. Net: +2.00u.
Sox at Rockies
Pick: Over 11 | Result: Won | Net: +2.00u
Coors Field delivered, as it often does. Boston and Colorado combined for 14 runs in an 8-6 Rockies win. The Red Sox jumped out early with three runs through four innings, but Colorado rallied with a three-run seventh and a two-run eighth. Tyler Freeman’s sacrifice bunt drove in the go-ahead run, and Cole Carrigg capped the scoring with an RBI double — finishing 2-for-4 with three RBI. Connor Wong homered for Boston, and Ceddanne Rafaela went 3-for-5 with a triple. The over 11 cleared with room to spare. Clean win. Net: +2.00u.
Orioles at Angels
Pick: Los Angeles Angels ML | Result: Won | Net: +2.00u
This one required some patience. Baltimore led 5-2 heading into the eighth inning before the Angels staged a three-run rally — Vaughn Grissom with an RBI single, Wade Meckler with a two-run single — to tie it. In the 10th, Pete Alonso gave the Orioles the lead again, but Nolan Schanuel reached third on an error and Logan O’Hoppe’s soft grounder drove him in for the walk-off 7-6 win. Jorge Soler homered and drove in two. The Angels’ sixth walk-off win of the season. This was a variance-flavored win — the Angels were down late and needed a comeback — but the result held. Net: +2.00u.
Royals at Rays
Pick: Under 7.5 | Result: Lost | Net: -2.10u
This was the second consecutive under loss on this Royals-Rays series, following a failed Under 8 in game one. Tampa Bay won 5-3, with the total finishing at eight — just enough to bust the number. Griffin Jax was excellent, pitching five strong innings with seven strikeouts and just two unearned runs. Yandy Díaz went 4-for-5 and tied the Rays’ franchise record for career RBI. The Royals scored three runs, including a Josh Rojas homer, but couldn’t get more. The under was competitive — Jax’s performance kept it close — but the Rays’ offense did just enough damage in the third and fourth innings to push the total over. Variance loss. Net: -2.10u.
Yankees at Tigers
Pick: Under 7.5 | Result: Won | Net: +2.00u
Jensen had already cashed an Under 7.5 in game one of this series, and game two produced the same result — a 4-2 Yankees win, six total runs. Tarik Skubal was sharp, striking out nine over six innings, but Paul Goldschmidt hit two home runs and Jasson Domínguez added a go-ahead two-run shot in the sixth. Skubal gave up three homers but limited the damage otherwise. The Yankees bullpen held the Tigers to two runs total. A clean under win, driven by elite pitching on both sides. Net: +2.00u.
Mariners at Pirates
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates ML | Result: Won | Net: +1.00u
After an under win in game one of this series, Jensen pivoted to the Pirates ML in game two — and Pittsburgh delivered emphatically, routing Seattle 11-1. Braxton Ashcraft was dominant: six innings, one run, five hits, zero walks, and 10 strikeouts — the first Pirates pitcher to post two such starts in a single season since at least 1901. Ryan O’Hearn went 4-for-5 with three doubles and three RBI, and Endy Rodriguez drove in three. The Mariners managed just one run on five hits. This was a lighter 1u allocation, but it was a clean, comfortable win. Net: +1.00u.
Phillies at Nationals
Pick: Over 9.5 | Result: Lost | Net: -2.20u
The previous night’s Phillies-Nationals game went 14-9, and the over 9.5 looked like a reasonable follow in game two. It didn’t materialize — Philadelphia won 5-4, with the total finishing at nine, just a half-run shy. Derek Hill’s two-out, two-run pinch homer in the ninth was the decisive blow, but the game stayed low-scoring through eight innings. Kyle Schwarber was out of the lineup with back tightness, which likely muted some offensive upside. The premise wasn’t unreasonable given the prior night’s fireworks, but the game played out as a pitcher’s duel until the late drama. Variance loss. Net: -2.20u.
Dodgers at Twins
Pick: Under 8 | Result: Won | Net: +2.00u
After losing an Under 9 in game one of this series, Jensen tightened the number and went back to the under — and it cashed. Los Angeles swept Minnesota with a 4-3 win, seven total runs. The Twins jumped out with three runs in the second, but the Dodgers answered with three in the third, sparked by Shohei Ohtani’s RBI single. Mookie Betts hit his 300th career home run and finished 3-for-4. After the third inning, both bullpens shut things down — no scoring from the fourth through the ninth. The under was comfortable from the middle innings on. Clean win. Net: +2.00u.
Diamondbacks at Cardinals
Pick: Over 9 | Result: Won | Net: +2.00u
Jensen had already backed the Diamondbacks ML in game one of this series, and the over 9 in game two was well-supported. Arizona won 9-4, with the total finishing at 13. A six-run fourth inning was the backbreaker — LuJames Groover and Ketel Marte hit back-to-back home runs to cap the outburst. Tommy Troy added two RBI, and every Diamondbacks hitter reached base at least once. St. Louis got contributions from José Fermín (homer, three runs) and Blaze Jordan (three RBI), but the Cardinals’ pitching couldn’t contain Arizona’s offense. The over cleared with ease. Clean win. Net: +2.00u.
Braves at Padres
Pick: Under 7.5 | Result: Won | Net: +2.00u
After losing an Atlanta ML bet in game one of this series, Jensen flipped to the under in game two — and San Diego completed the three-game sweep with a 5-2 win, seven total runs. JP Sears won his season debut, and Ty France homered and drove in two. Atlanta’s offense managed just two runs, with Joey Bart providing both via a home run. The game was well-contained through eight innings, with scoring spread across the middle frames. A clean under result. Net: +2.00u.
Athletics at Giants
Pick: Athletics ML | Result: Lost | Net: -2.48u
The A’s had lost game one of this series 3-1, and Jensen backed Oakland in game two — only to see history repeat itself in the cruelest fashion. Max Muncy homered in the eighth to give the A’s a 1-0 lead heading into the ninth. Then Elvis Alvarado blew the save: Rafael Devers led off with a tying homer, and Victor Bericoto connected one out later to walk it off for San Francisco, 2-1. The A’s were one out away from a win. This is a variance loss in the clearest sense — the handicap was competitive, Oakland led late, and a blown save in the ninth changed everything. Cost: -2.48u.
Beer Money & Parlay Plays
The side-play card went 1-1 on June 24 — these are lean, low-conviction recommendations with no units assigned and no impact on the official record or unit total.
Astros at Jays
The Over 8.5 (-105) in Houston at Toronto missed — the Astros won 3-1, with just four total runs. A low-scoring affair that never gave the over a chance.
Brewers at Reds
The Over 9 (-118) in Milwaukee at Cincinnati cashed — the Brewers won 6-5, with 11 combined runs clearing the number. A back-and-forth game that delivered the offensive output needed.
Missed Reads: Rangers ML (Texas vs. Miami’s dominant June run), Over 9.5 Phillies-Nationals (Schwarber out, game played low)
Variance / Competitive Losses: Under 7.5 Royals-Rays (Jax was sharp, total barely went over), Athletics ML (led 1-0 in the ninth, blown save walk-off)
Clean Wins: Under 8.5 Guardians-Sox, Over 11 Sox-Rockies, Angels ML, Under 7.5 Yankees-Tigers, Pirates ML, Under 8 Dodgers-Twins, Over 9 Diamondbacks-Cardinals, Under 7.5 Braves-Padres
The graded card on June 24 was a well-structured positive day. Eight wins against four losses at +5.7 units reflects solid allocation discipline — the losses were real, but none of them were blowouts in terms of game flow, and two of the four (Athletics ML, Under 7.5 Royals-Rays) were genuinely competitive results that went the wrong way late. The Rangers ML was the clearest missed read, backing a struggling Texas team against a Miami club that has been the hottest team in baseball this month. The Phillies-Nationals over was a reasonable follow that ran into a low-scoring game and a lineup missing its most dangerous bat. On the winning side, the totals card was the engine — six of the eight wins came on totals plays, and they ranged from comfortable (Over 11 at Coors, Over 9 in St. Louis) to clean and controlled (Under 7.5 in Detroit, Under 8 in Minnesota). The Pirates ML at lighter allocation was a bonus. A well-distributed +5.7 unit day.
