Indiana vs. Penn State Expert Pick & Analysis

by | Last updated Jan 11, 2023 | cbb

Indiana (10-5 SU 7-7 ATS) vs. Penn State (11-5 SU 10-6 ATS)
When: Wednesday, January 11th: 7:00 ET
Where: Bryce Jordan Center University Park, PA
Point Spread: IND +2.5/ PENNST -2.5
Total: 142.0
Money Line: Indiana Hoosiers +114/ Penn State Nittany Lions -138

Two teams riding mini two-game losing streaks take to the floor of the Bryce Jordan Center on Wednesday night in Big Ten action. The college betting board has the host Nittany Lions as a -2.5 favorite, with the total line at 142.5

Line Movement

This game opened at some sportsbooks at Penn State -2 and has been bet up a half point to -2.5. The total line has been on the decline, with an initial line at some betting shops of 143.5 now as low as 142 points.

Last Game Info

Going into their last game, Indiana was the betting favorite at -6.5 but fell to Northwestern by a score of 84-83. The combined 167 points finished above the 133.5 total line.

Penn State lost to Purdue in their last game by a score of 76-63. But because the Nittany Lions were +5 point underdogs, they finished with an ATS win. The combined 139 points finished above the 135.5 total line.

Current Form

Over their last five games, Indiana has a straight-up record of 2-3 while going 0-5 vs. the spread. Over this stretch, the Hoosiers offense averages 79.8 points per game while hitting 50.3% of their shots from the field. On the defensive end of the floor, they have allowed opponents to shoot 45.0% from the field while allowing 77.2 points per contest.

Penn State
In their previous five contests, Penn State is 3-2 straight-up and 1-4 vs. the spread. In these five games, they have a scoring average of 70.4 points per game on a shooting percentage of 43.8%. Defensively, they allow teams to hit 41.1% of their shots while giving up 69.6 points per game.

Average Power Rating Of Opponents Played

This season, the combined power rating of Indiana’s opponents comes in at 76.5. On the other side, Penn State’s combined opponent power rating sits at 78.8.

How Does Indiana Fare On The Road?

For the season, the Hoosiers have played five road games and have a record of 2-3. In these contests, Indiana is 1-3 vs. the spread. Offensively, they have averaged 73.2 points per game on a shooting percentage of 44.5%. On defense, the Hoosiers are allowing 74.6 points per contest when playing away from home. So far, opposing teams have a field goal percentage of 42.4% in these games.

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How Does Penn State Fare At Home?

In their 11 games at home, Penn State has a 7-4 record vs. the spread while going 9-2 straight-up. On offense, the Nittany Lions are shooting 47.4% on their home floor, leading to 75.6 points per game. Defensively, opponents are shooting 40.0% in these contests. The Penn State defense is allowing 65.7 points per game at home.

Offense vs. Defense

For the season, Indiana is averaging 71.5 points per game (184th) while posting an overall field goal percentage of 45.9%. In today’s game, they will be matched up against a Penn State defense that has allowed an average of 67.4 points per contest. This year, opponents have hit 41.2% of their shots vs. Penn State. On the other side, the Penn State Nittany Lions are coming into the game averaging 64.6 points per game on a shooting percentage of 43.2%. The Nittany Lions will be facing a defensive unit allowing an average of 68.3 points per contest. So far, teams have hit 40.6% of their shots vs. the Hoosiers.

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Three-Point Shooting

From beyond the arc, Indiana has a shooting percentage of 33.9% while ranking 570th in attempts per game. The Hoosiers will be facing a Penn State defense that has a 3-point field goal shooting percentage allowed of 33.5%. Penn State enters the game having hit 34.2% of their looks from deep while averaging 8.03 made 3’s per game. On the other end, Indiana has allowed opponents to hit 33.2% of their shots from beyond the arc.

Injuries Of Note


  • Race Thompson (Out) Knee
  • Xavier Johnson (Out) Foot

Penn State

  • Caleb Dorsey (Questionable) Undisclosed

Pick Against The Spread

The Nittany Lions have been very good at home, losing just one of their nine games at the Bryce Jordan Center, and that was to a very good Michigan State team. Indiana beat some quality teams earlier in the season, but they’re missing some good pieces right now in Guard Xavier Johnson and Forward Race Thompson. Penn State will have to do a better job guarding the three, and I think they will. Take Penn State -2.5