Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Missouri Tigers Betting Preview & Free Pick ATS

by | Jan 7, 2023 | cbb

Vanderbilt Commodores (8-6 SU, 5-9 ATS) vs. Missouri Tigers (12-2 SU, 9-5 ATS)
Where: Mizzou Arena, Columbia, Missouri
Time: Noon ET
TV: CBS

Point Spread: Van +9/MO -9
Over/Under: 151.5
Money Line: Vandy +300/Mizzou -400

The Vanderbilt Commodores head to Missouri for a Saturday SEC clash in which bookmakers have hung a lofty -9 on the Missouri Tigers. In this article, I’ll give you multiple reasons why I think this is too many points and why I’m forecasting the Vanderbilt Commodores to cover the point spread

Vandy is better at defending the 3-point line. The Commodores allow 30% from behind the arc as opposed to the Tigers who allow 35.6%.

Vanderbilt has been playing better defense than Missouri over their last five games. The Commodores have allowed opponents to shoot 40.1% which is decent. compared to the Tigers, who are allowing their opponents to shoot 47% from the field over their last five games.

While it’s a small sample, Missouri is shooting a lesser percentage from the field over their past games (46.8%) than they allow their opponents (47.3%). This isn’t earth shattering by any means, however, it’s one of negative variables that we take into consideration when handicapping college basketball games.

Get $60 of FREE member picks & predictions

(NO commitments. NO Credit Card. NO Salesman.)

More important is how teams play against conference opponents. Since conference play just recently started, we’ve got very little to go on here, but with the short amount of data we have, Missouri hasn’t fared well in their two games in league ,play shooting 46.8% and allowing 47.3%. Vanderbilt’s sample is even less, with one game against South Carolina in which they shot 45% and gave up 41%.

Vanderbilt beat Missouri in their last meeting in 2022 by a score of 70-62.

More Picks: Get Crew’s predicted spread winner for Wolverines/Spartans 1/7/23 game

Both teams are even with regards to average power ratings of opponents played this season at 73. I prefer to always have the upper hand in this category, as ,it’s a very underrated variable when handicapping games, but even isn’t a bad thing.

I do have two concerns about Vandy. The first is that this is their first road game since 11/30/22. The second is they play Tennessee in their next game and look-ahead spots can be trouble.

Kevn’s Pick to Cover the Spread: I think Missouri wins the game, but Vandy covers the +9. Vanderbilt is a much better defensive team. Vandy does have a shot of winning this game straight up, so I’ll be placing 10% of my wager on the money line and the other 90% on the spread. Good luck!