Arkansas Razorbacks (7-4 SU, 5-7 ATS) vs. Missouri Tigers (3-8 SU, 4-7 ATS)
College Football Week 13
Date/Time: Friday November 25th, 2016. 2:30PM (EST)
Where: Faurot Field Columbia, M.O.
by Jay, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: ARK -9/MIZZU +9
Over/Under Total: TBA
Forget shopping this Black Friday, football will be on the T.V when the Arkansas Razorbacks go into Columbia for a showdown with the Missouri Tigers for a season finale at Faurot Field. The Razorbacks are on the heels of an extremely high scoring victory over Mississippi State last weekend. Arkansas racked up 661 yards of total offense including 357 yards on the ground in a 58-42 victory over the Bulldogs to move to 7-4 SU. Now Arkansas will have a chance to reach their best regular season record in the Brett Bielema era if they can pull out another victory against Missouri this Friday.
The Tigers are looking to somehow end this treacherous season on a positive note. Thought by some to potentially be an improved team in the SEC East before the year began, the Tigers have the worst record in the SEC at 1-6 SU and 3-8 SU overall. The Tigers only win against an SEC opponent came just two weeks ago in a 26-17 victory over Vanderbilt. Before that Missouri had lost 11 straight SEC contests and now have a measly 2-15 SU record in the last 2 seasons against conference foes. However, Missouri will be looking for an offensive explosion just as they did against Vanderbilt as they seek a win in this Battle Line Rivalry on Friday afternoon.
Missouris problems this year have mainly resided on the defensive side of the football. They have been just awful giving up 237 yards per game on the ground and 239 yards per game through the air to compile the nations 116th total defense. The good news, if any, is that Missouri has been able to produce some scoring despite the horrendous defensive play. The Tigers have scored at least 21 points in the last 5 games and are 13th in the FBS averaging over 500 yards per game of total offense. The offense is surrounded by a nice trio of talent at the skill positions in quarterback Drew Lock, running back Damarea Crockett, and receiver JMon Moore. Of course Lock has been very inconsistent throughout the year but there have been flashes of big number potential for the sophomore.
I think Missouri has to treat this game from a gunslinger mentality. The Tigers defense is not going to stop Arkansas because quite frankly they have not been able to stop anyone. However, the Razorbacks also have a ton of issues on defense which was seen last week in their shootout victory over Mississippi State. On the season, the Razorbacks have given up 31.5 points per game which ranks 84th in the FBS. The Razorbacks have been most vulnerable to enemy passing attacks and I think that is why this betting line is still lingering in the single digits. This sets up as an opportunity for Drew Lock to have another big game along with JMon Moore.
Still Missouri is going to have to either come up with turnovers or find ways to get their defense off the field to keep this game within reach. The Razorbacks are likely going to pound away with the football behind Rawleigh Williams III and make the Missouri defense show they can stop. Last week Mississippi State never had an answer for that rushing attack as Williams racked up 205 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns in his biggest outing of the year. It is not a secret that Bielema likes running the football and I think that will be the case again on Friday as they look to keep Missouris offense off the field. If Missouri fails to stop the run, it will simply make things easier for Austin Allen in the passing game and then things could really get out of hand.
Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Keep a watch for the total in this game. It will be high but the scoring will be even higher. I could easily see both defenses giving up well more than their averages and that is already 30 plus points per game. Therefore, I will take the over on this game once the total is released and I do not really care about the number that gets posted.
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