Arkansas Razorbacks (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) vs. No. 19 Ole Miss Rebels (7-2 SU, 5-3-1 ATS)
College Football Week 10
Date/Time: Saturday November 7th, 3:30PM EST
Where: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium Oxford, M.S.
TV: CBS
by Jay, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: ARK +10.5/MISS -10.5
Over/Under Total: 56
The Arkansas Razorbacks will take a two game winning streak on the road this week for a meeting with the no. 19 Ole Miss Rebels in Oxford. Arkansas pulled out a 4 overtime thriller in the victory against Auburn in their last conference matchup before manhandling an inferior Tennessee-Martin team last week by a score of 63-28. However, the Razorbacks will be double digit underdogs when they meet the 7-2 SU Rebels this weekend who are also riding the heels of a two game winning streak. Ole Miss has scored back to back SEC victories against Texas A&M and Auburn. More importantly the Rebels still control their destiny in the SEC West. If they win out, a trip to an SEC Championship in Atlanta awaits.
Ole Misss only conference loss was suffered against Florida earlier this year. Despite the 7-2 record thanks to an upset loss at the hands of Memphis, the Rebels are still 4-1 in the SEC. Due to the fact they beat Alabama and hold the tie breaker advantage for one loss teams, the Rebels could be on the path towards a collision course with LSU on November 21st for the chance to take sole control of the dynamic SEC West. In order for that game to hold SEC Championship implications, the Rebels must first survive a home stand against a feisty Razorbacks team this Saturday afternoon on CBS.
I am sure many people will be under the assumption that the Rebels should get by a 4-4 Arkansas team with ease. However, the Razorbacks are a pesky group that are more than capable of an upset. The Razorbacks run the football well behind Alex Collins which is evident by the fact the team has averaged 191 yards per game on the season. Additionally, quarterback Brandon Allen has played pretty well this season completing 63% passing for 2,034 yards with 15 scores and 5 picks through the first 8 games. It is that type of balance that has caused troubles for opposing defenses this season and should challenge the Rebels talented defense this weekend.
Not many people would know but Arkansas actually ranks 3rd in the SEC in total offense behind only Ole Miss and LSU. Offensively, the Razorbacks have been pretty good. Instead, it has been the Arkansas defense that has struggled for the most part. Even in the win against Auburn that went into 4 overtimes, it was apparent that Arkansas could not find ways to get off the field. I know they won the game but the defense had several opportunities to win the game before the final whistle blew.
Just look at last weeks game against Tennessee-Martin for proof of the defensive troubles. The Razorbacks defense relinquished 519 total yards to a Skyhawks team out of the FCS with 380 yards by way of the passing game. It was another example of the Razorbacks inability to slow down opposing passing threats. On the season, Arkansas ranks a pitiful 114th in the FBS allowing more than 270 yards per game through the air. That is a cause for concern this week going against a really talented Ole Miss passing offense led by quarterback Chad Kelly and WR Laquon Treadwell.
Despite a little fall off from his extremely hot start at the beginning of the year, Kelly is still completing 65% of his passes with 20 touchdowns and 12 picks on the season. Treadwell leads a talented group of Ole Miss receivers with 61 catches for 870 yards with 6 touchdowns on the season. The Rebels talent alone will be tough to defend from Arkansas but the way this game unfolds will rely on the play of Kelly. The Rebels quarterback has given up 7 interceptions in the last 3 games alone. He has posted great numbers outside of the interceptions but those turnovers could keep Arkansas in this game if they continue. If that happens, I think Arkansas ability to run the football and score points could potentially show cause for an outright upset.
Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I think the Razorbacks make the plays to keep those game close. If they can get a turnover or two, anything is possible. Take Arkansas +10.5
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