Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Point Spread & Predictions

by | Last updated Sep 20, 2022 | cfb

No. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. No. 23 Texas A&M Aggies (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS)

NCAA Football Week 4

Date/Time: Saturday September 24th, 2022. 7:00PM (EST)

Where: AT&T Stadium Arlington, TX


Betting Odds:

Point Spread: ARK +2.5/A&M -2.5 (Everygame – Get a 100% real cash bonus up to $500 when you enter bonus code PREDICTEM on their Special Offers page after making your deposit!)

Total: 48

After suffering one of the biggest upset losses of the season at the hands of Appalachian State, the Texas A&M Aggies bounced back with a 17-9 victory over no. 13 Miami last week. The Aggies have now shed the bulk of the non-conference play and will meet the no. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks at AT&T Stadium for their first SEC test of the season. Backed by a stingy defense, the Aggies are listed as mere 2.5-point favorites in what promises to be an intriguing edition of the Southwest Classic.

The Razorbacks are off to a 3-0 SU start on the season with wins over no. 23 Cincinnati, South Carolina, and a surprisingly close 38-27 victory over Missouri State last week. At 2-1 ATS, the Razorbacks appear to be one of those teams that could be a nuisance to the top teams in the SEC West this year, and that is exactly what the Razorbacks will attempt to do this Saturday when they go on the road for the first time this season against one of the favorites in the SEC West. Despite giving the ball away three times last week and failing to cover the spread against an inferior opponent like Missouri State, the Razorbacks appear prime to give the Aggies all they can handle.

Just like I stated last week, the Aggies have some serious issues on the offensive side of the football, which has produced just 17 points in each of the last two games. In last week’s win over Missouri State, the Aggies made a change at the quarterback position, with Max Johnson receiving his first start of the year. However, the change did not create much difference from an offense that continued to appear stale. Johnson went 10 of 20 for 140 yards with a touchdown, and needless to say, it was not the type of performance that simmered the offense’s concerns. The struggles from the A&M offense is yet again why I believe the “total” may be the best play in this game yet again.

Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Texas A&M Aggies Betting Analysis

When I provided my analysis in last week’s showdown between Miami and Texas A&M, I advised bettors that the “under” may be the best play of the week despite a relatively low 44-point total. For this week’s showdown on neutral turf at AT&T Stadium, I believe the same narrative may be true again. As bad as the Aggies’ offense has struggled, the Texas A&M defense has been just as good, holding opponents to 26 points combined through the opening three games.

When I look at this match-up from a handicapping perspective, I don’t believe Arkansas has the type of offense that will exploit the Aggies defense even if they get short-field situations consistently, even if the Aggies offense continues to struggle. The Razorbacks remain a run-first offense with tailback Raheim Sanders, and they will be going against a superior defensive front on Saturday. Meanwhile, the passing game led by QB KJ Jefferson has been effective from a statistical standpoint. Jefferson has thrown six touchdowns with just one pick for 770 yards through the opening three games. However, the Razorbacks routinely spread the ball through intermediate passing attempts and rarely threaten the field vertically. I believe that type of play-calling will likely play into the hands of the Aggies’ defense, which continues to play extremely well.

If we cannot trust the Aggies offense to score many points, I really question how the total for this game is listed at a high 48 points. Granted, the Razorbacks have been shaky at times on the defensive side of the football and have been plagued by turnovers throughout the year. Anytime bettors are considering a play on the “under,” those are important red flags. With that said, I still question whether the Aggies will be able to cash-in on touchdowns if they win the turnover battle and/or get short-field situations. So far this season, I have not seen anything to confidently claim the Aggies’ offense can capitalize in those situations.

Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Texas A&M Aggies Betting Trends

  • Arkansas is 5-1 ATS in the last six games
  • Arkansas has hit the “over” in four of the last six games
  • Arkansas is just 1-9 SU against Texas A&M in the last ten games
  • Arkansas is 4-1 ATS against Texas A&M in the last five games
  • Texas A&M is just 2-4 ATS in the last six games
  • Texas A&M is just 3-6 ATS in the last nine games against SEC West opponents
  • Texas A&M has hit the “under” in nine straight games in the month of September
  • Texas A&M has hit the “under” in five of the last seven games

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Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Texas A&M Aggies Betting Prediction

From a match-up perspective, I think this game is pretty equal. The Razorbacks have a balanced attack with a great athlete at the quarterback position, in KJ Jefferson, that should be able to extend plays and move the chains. However, the Aggies have a great defense with a bend but don’t break mentality. When you combine Texas A&M’s quarterback issues and questionable play-calling, I don’t see many paths to a game script that will push the scoring past the current total. In fact, I consider the “under” one of the more confident plays of the season thus far!

Jay’s Pick: Take the under 48. Bet your Week 4 college football picks by scoring a 100% real cash bonus up to $500 when you enter promo code PREDICTEM at Betnow Sportsbook!