Barking Dog: Florida vs. Texas A&M Pick ATS

by | Oct 6, 2020 | cfb

Florida Gators (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Texas A&M Aggies (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS)

When: Saturday, October 10th, 2019 – 12:00 PM ET

Where: Kyle Field – College Station, TX

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: UF -6.5 / TAMU +6.5 (SportsBetting.ag - AWESOME Live Betting Platform!)

Total: 58.5

Takeaways From Week 5

The Gators step into this contest as the third ranked team in all of America, a distinction shared with their arch rival the Bulldogs of Georgia. Florida was last in action last Saturday where it played host to the South Carolina Gamecocks. The Gators would defeat the Gamecocks 38-24 but fail to cover the 14.5-point line while it did so by a mere half-point.

The Aggies were throttled last Saturday when it hit the road to square off with the Alabama Crimson Tide. As an 18-point underdog, Texas A&M was nowhere near close to covering as they were pummelled 52-24 by the Tide in Tuscaloosa.

How the Public is Betting the Florida-Texas A&M Game

75% of the public like Florida who opened as a 5.5-point favorite. Since the line has opened, it has risen by a point to its current position further reinforcing the heavy consensus lean on the Gators.

The Historical

These two sides have met twice in recent history when Texas A&M joined the SEC in 2012. In the series historical between both sides, each team has won one meeting. Both contests were settled by a combined four points. Texas A&M won 19-17 in The Swamp in 2017 when it traveled to Florida and staged the upset as a three-point underdog.

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Betting Trends

The Aggies have gone ice-cold against the spread as they have failed to green up in their last four contests.

Injury Concerns

12 members of the Florida Gators are listed as questionable heading into this conference collision. The assortment of players with undisclosed injuries varies across all position groups but is mostly concentrated in UF’s secondary and defensive line. At minimum this will test Florida’s defensive depth which incidentally is considered a hallmark of the Gator Operation being a defense-oriented football team.

Why We Like Texas A&M To Cover

While I wrote that Florida is a defense-oriented team, they have not played like one in the early stages of the 2020 season. It has been Florida’s offense that has won games for them. Florida has discovered ways to allow the Rebels and Gamecocks to hang 59 points combined in the first two games of play. Texas A&M’s offense comparatively is a step forward in terms of quality and opposition. Contrarily, Florida’s offense is an easier assignment for the Aggies defense to take on when comparing it to the likes of Alabama who bode the services of exceptional talent such as Jaylen Waddle and Devonta Smith. Sure, Florida has playmakers but I am not convinced. After all, Florida’s offense was boom or bust in 2019 under the same stewardship. Florida’s offense excelled against weaker defenses but they struggled mightily when it encountered more comprehensive defensive units. A&M’s defense is far better than anything that Mississippi or South Carolina can offer up, thus if the balloon were to pop in College Station, the Aggies will be in prime position to make a game of this. This is especially the case with respect to the injury list surrounding much of Florida’s defense which already have shown early season struggles out of the gate. Furthermore, how much of this market is being influenced by the whooping A&M took last week? However, I don’t put much stock in that as Alabama is a tough team to beat in general, let alone on their own pitch.

Keith Pick to Cover the Spread: Texas A&M +6.5

To be quite frank, I do not think the Gators are deserving of being the third ranked team in America. After all, who did they beat that warrants such acclaim? Mississippi and South Carolina? Both of whom did not even finish 2019 with winning records. This is the first real test for Florida against an Aggie team that will only get better as the season wears on. A lot of analysts will herald in the play of Gator Quarterback Kyle Trask but it is the Aggies who have an edge in a matured and seasoned veteran in Kellen Mond. If the Gators’ defense comes into this contest thin with respect to injury concerns, Mond should be able to generate some offense to counter anything that Florida may offer up. While Florida will likely win the game, an upset is certainly possible. However, this game will likely be settled by less than a converted touchdown so the points here offer a lot of equity. Bet your Week 6 NCAA football picks FREE by cashing in on a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook!