Barking Dog: Penn State vs. Minnesota Prediction

by | Nov 5, 2019 | cfb

Penn State Nittany Lions (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS) vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-0 SU, 5-2-1 ATS)
When: Saturday, November 9th, 2019 – 12:00 PM ET
Where: TCF Bank Stadium – Minneapolis, MN

Point Spread: PSU -6.5 / MIN +6.5 (Intertops)
Total: 47

Poll Rankings: Minnesota +8

Takeaways From Week 10

The Nittany Lions come in undefeated and off a bye. Penn State was last in action on October 26th against the upset-minded Michigan State Spartans in The Battle for the Land Grant Trophy. Closing as a 5.5-point road favorite, the Nittany Lions dominated their rivals 28-7 to take their backers to the window.

The Golden Gophers come into this contest undefeated and also off a bye like their counterparts. In their last action, the Gophers put together an impressive 52-10 win over the Maryland Terrapins on October 26th. Closing as a 14-point favorite, Minnie was easy money as they went onto produce their fifth consecutive win against the spread.

How the Public is Betting the Penn State-Minnesota Game

PSU opened as a six-point favorite. As a result of early action being taken on the Nittany Lions, Penn State is now spotting an additional half-point to Minnie. Presently, 58% of the consensus like the Nittany Lions as the road favorite.

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The Historicals

The Golden Gophers and Nittany Lions last met in 2016. In their last encounter, overtime was required to declare a victor. The winner was Penn State, who produced a push when they won 29-26 as a three-point favorite.

Betting Trends

Penn State has been a cash cow in this series as they have gone 4-1-2 ATS in the previous seven bouts between these two foes. Being the chalk is also a favorable position as the favorite is 3-0-2 ATS in the last five meetings.

Injury Concerns

Heading into this high-profile B1G affair, neither Penn State or Minnesota have any injuries to report regarding key players.

Why We Like Minnesota To Cover

There is little doubt that this game will have a defensive connotation to it as we are dealing with two teams that are in the upper echelons when it comes to scoring and total defense. Penn State owns the second-best scoring defense in the country, giving up an incredulous 9.6 points per game. Minnesota surrenders a 20th-ranked 20 points per match. In total defense, the Gophers are 13th in the country, giving up 283.8 yards of total offense per game. Penn State is just 3.3 yards ahead of them in that department, relinquishing only 280.5 yards of total offense against per match (10th in the FBS). With both teams averaging just over 38 points per contest offensively (they sit 13th and 14th in America in scoring offense), this game will come down to explosive plays and who can do a better job of bottling up the other team’s offensive dynamite. I have to like Minnesota in that regard. The Golden Gophers sit in the top-ten in passing defensive as they allow opponents to go for 166.4 yards through the air per fixture (9th overall). Penn State sits 48th in that department giving up 211.6 passing yards per game. Also, home-field advantage is likely to be instrumental in this contest. The forecast for Saturday calls for temperatures to be hovering around the freezing mark with a 63% chance of precipitation. This means that there could be snow on the horizon for this game, and this will undoubtedly play into Minnie’s hands as Penn State may struggle to overcome the environs. All of these variables make Minnesota a great candidate to cover and possibly stage an upset.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Minnesota +6.5

We have heard for weeks how about Penn State’s College Football Playoff hopes, but no one has mentioned these Golden Gophers. Minnesota will feel disrespected and overlooked, not only be their ranking but the lack of conversation surrounding their stellar run in 2019. This is Minnesota’s prime opportunity to set the record straight, and while doing so, put themselves in pole position to win the B1G West. However, many will talk about James Franklin finally pulling off a win against a ranked opponent on the road in Iowa earlier this season, but that’s neither here nor there because Minnie is a much different animal than the Hawkeyes. The Gophers are balanced on both sides of the football and fundamentally are the most balanced team that the Nittany Lions will face season-to-date (yes - that includes Michigan and Michigan State). I don’t think that Minnie will only cover, I see them winning this game outright. I would certainly encourage those that are bold to consider a split-wager with half of the bet placed on the points and the other half with the Gophers on the Money Line at +210.

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