Big 12 Dog Barking: West Virginia vs. Oklahoma Pick

by | Oct 15, 2019 | cfb

West Virginia Mountaineers (3-3 SU, 2-3-1 ATS) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (6-0 SU, 3-3 ATS)
When: Saturday, October 19th, 2019 – 12:00 PM ET
Where: Gaylord Family - Oklahoma Memorial Stadium – Norman, OK

Point Spread: WV +33.5 / OU -33.5 (BetAnySports)
Total: 65.5

Power Ratings: Oklahoma -23

Takeaways From Week 7

Country Roads steps into this game on a two-game losing streak. Most recently, WV was in action last Saturday in Morgantown when it hosted visiting Iowa State. As a nine-point underdog, the Mountaineers failed to cover in their second consecutive outing, losing by a score of 38-14.

The No. 5 Sooners come in undefeated. The Crimson and Cream will be in exceptionally high spirits after dismissing their arch-rival Texas in last week’s annual Red River Showdown. OU defeated UT 34-27 but failed to cover as a ten-point favorite as a result of a backdoor cover.

How the Public is Betting the West Virginia-Oklahoma Game

63% of the consensus like the Mountaineers here with the points. Despite the public lean on West Virginia, we have seen early action come in on the Sooners who opened as a 33-point favorite. Since the open, OU is now laying an additional half-point to West Virginia.

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The Historicals

The last match between these two sides was a track meet. The Mountaineers hosted the Sooners in Morgantown last November and fell by a score of 59-56, producing a push when they closed as a three-point underdog. Since West Virginia joined the Big 12, they have played Oklahoma seven times and have never beaten them.

Betting Trends

Oklahoma has been a cash cow in this series as they have gone 4-0-1 ATS against the Mountaineers in the previous five meetings between both sides. For Over/Under takers, the Over is 5-0 ATS in the last five contests between these two teams.

Injury Concerns

Heading into this Big 12 match-up, West Virginia Quarterback Austin Kendall remains a question mark after sustaining a chest injury in the Mountaineers’ last game against Iowa State. Should he remain out, Quarterback Jack Allison will be back under center for WVU. Against Iowa State, Allison completed 67% of his passes while throwing for a touchdown and a pick.

Why We Like West Virginia To Cover

Some other betting sites would suggest that the Sooners are grossly overvalued. When I say gross overvalued, I don’t mean by a few points. I am referring to perhaps a double-digit overlay. By virtue of this narrative alone, the price predicates the play. After all, there are many reasons as to why Oklahoma’s stock would be inflated in this spot. First, the Sooners have ruled this series with an iron fist and been an ATM while doing so. With respect to their dominance and profitability against WVU, the Sooners will be prone to lay heavier lumber than usual here.

Moreover, Oklahoma will inflict a premium on any that dare back it in virtually all Big 12 games, albeit they have been the stand-alone juggernaut in this league for several years running. Outside of these angles, the Mountaineers can also secure a cover by virtue of the backdoor. Given the high-scoring element that this game has to offer, OU’s seemingly unstoppable offense can offer up a 40-point lead to the Sooners, and takers can still lose the bet. Should Coach Lincoln Riley call off the dogs early in the event of a rout, a late junk-time score or two can bring West Virginia back under this lofty number. On a smaller scale, OU torched takers last week. Just when it seemingly was beginning to pull away from Texas. The Horns scored in the final minutes of play to come within a touchdown of their rivals to the dismay of those the Sooner backers.

Keith Pick to Cover the Spread: West Virginia +33.5

Make no mistake about this one; it could get ugly very quick. Oklahoma’s third-ranked scoring offense in America (50.2 points per game) has a good match-up here against the 94th-ranked scoring defense in the FBS (30.3 points per contest). Oklahoma will filet West Virginia’s defense and can easily hang 60 on the Mountaineers. However, West Virginia’s offense has shown some sparks of brilliance. The Mountaineers put up 31 on Texas two weeks ago, and they hung 44 on NC State in their upset win of the Wolf Pack in mid-September. I can see West Virginia collecting a few scores here and winning the bet even if they lose the game in abhorrent fashion.

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