Boise State Broncos vs. BYU Cougars Pick 10/9/21

by | Oct 6, 2021 | cfb

Boise State Broncos (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. BYU Cougars (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS)

College Football Week 6

Date and Time: Saturday, October 9, 2021 at 3:30PM EDT

Where: LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, Utah

TV: ABC

Point Spread: BSU +5.5/BYU -5.5 (Betanysports - Hey! Stop laying -110 odds! You’re WASTING you hard earned money! Make the switch to -105 and save TONS of cash every month for simply taking 2 minutes to make a switch to a better sportsbook!)

Over/Under Total: 55.5

The Boise State Broncos come to Provo for a showdown with the BYU Cougars on Saturday. The supposed coming down to earth hasn’t gone according to plan with the unbeaten Cougars, 5-0 after a 34-20 win over Utah State. Boise State, however, has hit the skids at 2-3, following a disheartening 41-31 home loss to Nevada in their last game. A win here would jump-start their season because at 2-4; they’d be at the lowest they have been at for a long time. Who can get the cover at LaVell Edwards Stadium on Saturday?

Bad News for Boise

Things just haven’t come off as planned for Boise St. this season. It doesn’t mean they’re finished, but it’s troubling to see if you’re a Boise backer. Losing on a big comeback to Central Florida and getting nipped at the wire by a still-unbeaten Oklahoma State team is one thing, but to be trounced in the second half against Nevada in a conference game at home is a real letdown. It’s not something from which they can’t recover, but going on the road to take on a top-ten ranked team hardly sounds like good medicine for their condition.

Going back to last season is sometimes tricky in college ball, and considering the trials of last year, it might make it less so. But BYU’s 51-17 win over the Broncos warrants some notice. Granted, Hank Bachmeier wasn’t behind center that week for Boise, and BYU’s quarterback that day is now playing on Sundays. But a lot of the same faces on BYU’s offense who tormented that Boise “D” are back this season, including RB Tyler Allgeier, Lopini Katoa, and Gunner Romney. Boise’s excellent receiver Khalil Shakir had a huge game, and now with Bachmeier in there, maybe they can make some noise, but the offense hasn’t been the issue this season for the Broncos.

We’ve seen times this season where the Boise defense is both porous and lacking any elements of clutch play. They have let this team down in any kind of close-game situation so far in 2021. And other times, they are just awful in long stretches. Their resistance against the run is dicey, a definite concern when about to face Tyler Allgeier after what he did to Boise last season and now coming off a 218-yard game last week.

Major Challenges for the Broncos

The Broncos are trying to get better against a team that has won 16 of its last 17 games, and they’re on the road. That’s for starters. They do have some offensive juice they will try to apply this week. It hasn’t been taking a resounding hold against the better teams they’ve faced yet this season, but it’s not easy to cover numbers against Boise’s offense sometimes. In some ways, with Boise usually the one laying points, maybe a bad start to the season will give way to a perk in getting some decent spreads. The value isn’t always there with Boise, but maybe we’ll see some more in-line spreads. It doesn’t look like it has started happening just yet, however.

BYU is not a team given to off-weeks. What they are usually surfaces at some point, and that’s big problems for Boise. They will be hoping their defense sees a big upgrade from last week while also hoping that their offense can take hold against a Cougars’ defense that hasn’t yielded more than 20 points all season. And based on the recent form of the Boise “D” and the BYU offense, combined with how this game looked last season, one could see why this looks like a tall order for the Broncos this week.

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The Urgency Quotient

Again, BYU is not a team likely to be caught sleeping in this spot. So Boise gets no breaks from being a bit down and taking on a team with bigger things to look forward to. Still, Boise is on the precipice of this season, becoming a major problem. There’s wins out there against the lesser MWC teams further down the schedule, but falling to 2-4 and basically blanking in all their big tests this season would be a hard pill to swallow. There is a ton of talent on this team, with major offensive weaponry to put to use. And when facing a do-or-die situation, some of those things can better manifest. It might not be enough to win the game, but maybe it’s enough to keep it in the ballpark and cover the spread.

Value Factor

It seems like there’s still some residue Boise State hype pixie dust on this spread. If a 2-3 team with that resume not named Boise State was coming into BYU, this spread could easily be in the double-digits. Granted, they are Boise, and with that comes certain things that could make this harder than it appears on the surface—a high-powered offense dialing it in or a defense that has been made to look worse than it is snapping into shape better. But the bottom line is that for all their success, this spread doesn’t seem that hard on BYU.

Lay the Number on the Home Favorite

This game could be a sneaky one, and you can’t blame someone if they smell a rat. I just think the Boise defense is the one breaking point in this game, and there isn’t a ton of reason to forecast BYU not being able to exploit that. Maybe the carousel of quarterbacks BYU is using is a concern, but it hasn’t affected their bottom-line output yet. I see them getting enough separation from the Broncos this week to win and cover the spread.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the BYU Cougars minus 5.5 points. Bet your week 6 college football picks for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500 at GTBets!