Bowling Green vs. Miami-Ohio Prediction ATS 11/16/21

by | Nov 15, 2021 | cfb

Bowling Green Falcons (3-7 SU, 7-3 ATS) vs. Miami-Ohio RedHawks (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS)
When: Tuesday, November 16, 8 p.m.
Where: Yager Stadium, Oxford, Ohio
TV: ESPNU
Point Spread: BGSU +17/M-OH -17 (BetOnline - 35% Crytpo Reloads and FAST payouts!)
Total: O/U 51.5

Outlook

The pressure is on in more ways than one for Miami-Ohio, which can become bowl eligible with a win. Not only that, but the RedHawks can set up a battle with Kent State for the MAC East crown in the season finale with a win here, as the teams would enter the last game either tied or in position for the tiebreaker to decide who goes to Detroit. A loss, on the other hand, would have devastating consequences for the RedHawks, as they’d find themselves looking at either reaching the MAC title game or having the season end without a postseason bid at all, as they’d enter the Kent State game at 5-6 and need a win just to become eligible for a bowl.

Bowling Green has no postseason to play for, but that hasn’t stopped the Falcons from being competitive in most road games this season. The Falcons have an upset of Minnesota on their resume and battled Kent State and Northern Illinois tough on the road before upsetting Buffalo. It’s at Doyt Perry Stadium, where the Falcons have been a raging disaster, as they’ve been blown out in all three of their MAC home games. Miami certainly can’t overlook this one, as the RedHawks are coming off a loss to an Ohio team that should have been a reasonably straightforward victory. The Bobcats also had nothing but a spoiler role to play for, so if Bowling Green is motivated, the Falcons could spring a surprise.

How the Public is Betting the Bowling Green/Miami-Ohio Game

The public believes the Falcons are done, as they’re backing the RedHawks here despite BGSU’s 5-0 ATS mark away from home. Sixty-one percent of tickets are on Miami, and the spread has risen from -15.5 to -17, with the total rising from 51 to 51.5.

Injury Concerns

Bowling Green:
Running back Trevon Raymore (knee) is out.

Miami-Ohio:
Running back Jaylon Bester (undisclosed) is questionable.

When Bowling Green Has the Ball

Looking back on Bowling Green’s win over Buffalo, the fact that it happened is basically a miracle. The Bulls had 36 first downs for the game, while the Falcons had 11. Yet Bowling Green still found a way to score 56 points because, on that night, the Falcons’ big plays took over the game and kept Buffalo from ever catching up.
That’s not the way things usually work for Bowling Green. This isn’t a team that runs the ball well at all, nor is it a great passing team. Matt McDonald had a great night against Buffalo that evening, but he followed that up by throwing for just 65 yards against Toledo in a game that was one-way traffic from beginning to end. Terion Stewart has had two good games running the ball, but most of the time, he only scratches out around three yards per carry. As long as the opponent is in good position and tackles well, this is not a team that has a lot of ways to hurt its opposition.

When Miami-Ohio Has the Ball

The concern here is whether Miami is going to attack Bowling Green’s defense at its weakest point because the Falcons’ biggest weakness is the thing that the RedHawks don’t really do well. Miami has a couple of decent backs in Keyon Mozee and Kenny Tracy, but the RedHawks don’t commit to any of their backs enough to get a strong running game out of them.
They do, however, usually get a good showing out of Brett Gabbert, who has tossed for 18 scores and just three picks on the season. However, the one strength of Bowling Green is its pass defense, as the Falcons give up a mere 190.4 yards per game through the air, compared to 201.5 yards per game on the ground. Stopping Jack Sorenson will be a big challenge for the Falcons, though, as the Miami receiver has 1,098 yards and eight scores on the season.

More Picks: Get Dan’s WMU at EMU Week 12 Game Analysis & Prediction ATS >>>

Betting Trends

Oxford has almost been a home away from home for the Falcons in the past decade, as Bowling Green has won four of its past five trips to Miami. The last visit here, however, didn’t go well for the Falcons, as Miami won by a 44-3 count. Other than that, Bowling Green has won all four visits by at least eight points, and the road team has managed to win straight up in eight of the last ten meetings overall.
This total does seem a little low for MACtion, and it’s a genuine surprise, as Bowling Green has gone over in five straight games, and Miami has done it in three of its past four contests. It’s likely because of the weak Bowling Green offense that the total is so low, but the Falcons are giving up an average of 49.3 points per game on their own over the past three weeks, so don’t expect a lower-scoring game here.

Weather Report

These teams picked a great day to take the field, as it’s going to be a mild-weather day in western Ohio. Temperatures will sit in the mid to high 40s on a partly cloudy day, with the wind blowing at eight miles per hour.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Miami should be able to get a cover here. Bowling Green is better than it’s been in recent years, but the Falcons still aren’t very good. Throw in that Miami has plenty to play for and is at home, and I think they’re going to end up covering here. My play will be the over, but for the spread, I want the RedHawks. Question: When you bet on games, are you laying -110 odds? 99% of you are and you’re overpaying! Why on God’s green earth would you not consider taking 5 minutes to switch to a better sportsbook that saves you money EVERY-TIME-YOU-BET! Do yourself a favor and make the switch to -105 reduced odds sports betting at BetanySports! You’ll be so glad you did!

Doc’s Pac-12 Friday Championship Smash

Doc Sports Pro Handicapper

Doc’s Sports is starting this football weekend off on Friday with a strong selection from the PAC-12 Championship Game in Las Vegas. Get this play now as Doc has the key angles that will allow this selection to grab the money in a big way. It is backed by a full report and 50 years of handicapping experience.