Buffalo Bulls vs. Ohio Bobcats Point Spread – Pick Against the Spread

Buffalo Bulls (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) vs. Ohio Bobcats (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS)
College Football Week 11
Date and Time: Tuesday, November 5, 2014, 8:00 pm EST
Where: Peden Stadium, Athens, Ohio
TV: ESPNU, DirecTV 208
by Badger, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com

Point Spread: Buff. +3/Ohio -3
Over/Under Total: 55.5

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The Mid-American Conference (MAC) will get a second straight night in the primetime spotlight Wednesday, when two of the middle-tier teams from the MAC-East get ready to battle to try and get one game closer to bowl eligible when the Buffalo Bulls travel to Peden Stadium in Athens to take on the Ohio Bobcats on ESPNU.

Both of these teams are only a few years past title-contending seasons, but this year both are struggling to get their heads above water and a .500 record.

The Bulls enter the Wednesday night tilt in the midst of a three-game losing streak, losing three close games including a, 20-14, loss at home to Central Michigan last time out on October 25th. If you take away the gimme wins over Norfolk State and Duquesne, Buffalo hasnt exactly played top-notch football in 2014, so maybe playing in a showcase game in primetime will inspire the Bulls to step up their game.

Ohio has had a similar season, losing three of their last four games including a lopsided, 42-21, loss on the road at Western Michigan on October 25th. The Bobcats are 3-1 at home in Peden Stadium this season, so hopes are high for a win in front of the home crowd, but considering those wins came against the likes of Eastern Illinois, Idaho and Akron, the solid 3-1 record looks a little less impressive.

Oddsmakers and sportsbook managers are sort of taking the night off on this game, setting the opening point spread with the Bobcats as the standard 3-point favorites typically associated with being the home team. After a day on the board, the number is staying right at 3-points, although there are a few books that have moved it up the hook to Ohio minus -3.5.


The over/under total opened at 55.5 and has yet to move in either direction after less than 24 hours of being made live on most boards in Las Vegas and offshore.

For Buffalo, the Bulls offense appears to be a little bit better than their defense at this point of the season. The Bulls average 31 points per game, are 5th in the MAC with 450 yards per game, with 167 of those yards coming on the ground each week (4th in MAC). I expect the Bulls to use the arm of QB Joe Licata (2,125 yards, 20 TD) to attack the Bobcats, especially since Ohio allows almost 300 yards passing on average (292 ypg) .

The Ohio offense should be able to move the ball as well now that most of Buffalo best defensive players have moved on and are now playing on Sundays. However, will just a mere 19 points per game average, I wouldnt exactly expect the Bobcats to run up the score despite the fact the Buffalo defense is allowing 33 points per game.

Interestingly enough, historically this series has been very competitive. Both teams have been trading wins back-n-forth the past eight meetings, with Buffalo winning last years contest in big fashion (30-3), while the Bobcats beat them in their last trip to Athens in 2012, 38-31. While the results have gone back and forth on the scoreboard, the Bulls have been the best wager over the years covering the point spread in three straight meetings and in five of the last seven meetings between these two schools.

The best wager on Wednesday night could be the over, especially since the over is 4-0 in the last four meetings played in Ohio and 5-1 in the last six meetings dating back to the 2009 season.

Badgers Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Picking a side in this one is like picking the lesser of two evils. While I really think the Bulls have the better offense, Im not a fan of playing the road team trying to overcome the home crowd when college football is concerned. That said, Id say I have a slight lean toward Buffalo in this game. Dont blow your bankroll on this one, but Id take Buffalo plus the points in this one Wednesday night.

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