CFB Week 10 Picks: Cornhuskers vs. Spartans

Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-3 SU, ATS 4-4) vs Michigan State Spartans (2-6 SU, ATS 2-4-1)

Date: Saturday, November 4th

Location: Spartan Stadium (MI), East Lansing, MI

TV: FS1

Point Spread: Neb -3/MSU +3 (This is a GREAT game to throw into a massive 20 point college football teaser only found at Wagerweb Sportsbook!)

Money Line: Huskers -153/Sparty +124

Over/Under: 34.5

The Nebraska Cornhuskers and Michigan State Spartans matchup in a Big Ten showdown at Spartan Stadium (MI) in East Lansing, MI. The over/under for this matchup is currently 34.5, while Nebraska is favored by -3.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

There wasn’t a head-to-head matchup between Michigan State and Nebraska last season. But looking back across their previous three head-to-head games, Michigan State is 3-0. Against the spread, Michigan State went 2-1 in these matchups. On the over/under, the teams went 2-1, combining for 34 points per contest.

Nebraska Cornhuskers Recent Form:

Nebraska’s 31-14 win against Purdue has propelled their record to 5-3 as they prepare for this week’s showdown with Michigan State.

Going into the game, the oddsmakers had this one as a pick em, giving Nebraska an ATS win. The team’s combined 45 points surpassed the over/under line of 39.

In the win to Purdue, quarterback Heinrich Haarberg concluded with a QB rating of 133.33 while connecting on 6 of 11 passes for 122 yards. Moreover, he contributed two touchdowns to the game.

Nebraska’s leading rusher against Purdue was Emmett Johnson, who rushed for 76 yards and found the endzone one time on 13 carries. Jaylen Lloyd emerged as the team’s top receiver, scoring one touchdown and making one reception for 73 yards.

Nebraska’s defense gave up 195 yards of offense vs. Purdue. In the passing game, they allowed 99 yards while on the ground they gave up 96 yards. Nebraska’s defense ranks 65th in points allowed, with 18.6 points given up per game. Teams have been averaging 219.8 passing yards against them (82nd nationally). On the ground, they’ve conceded 79 rushing yards, putting them 9th in college football.

Away Injury Report

Michigan State Spartans Recent Form:

Michigan State has an overall record of 2-6 as they prepare for this game. In their most recent game, they faced Minnesota and were unable to secure a win, resulting in a 27-12 loss to the Golden Gophers.

Against the spread, Michigan State was not able to cover as 6.5-point underdogs. On the over/under, the line was 41 going into the game resulting in the under hitting.

Katin Houser finished with 117 yards against Minnesota while going 12 for 22 for a completion percentage of 54.5%. He ended the game without a rushing or passing touchdown.

Despite carrying the ball six times against Minnesota, Sam Leavitt was unable to score a rushing touchdown and finished with 52 yards in the game for Michigan State. In the passing game, Montorie Foster Jr. finished with a team-high 55 receiving yards while averaging 13.8 yards per reception.

The Spartans’ defense finished the game by giving up 405 total yards to Minnesota. The team’s run defense allowed 205 yards rushing compared to 200 in the passing game. Coming into this week’s game, the Michigan State defense is 105th in points allowed at 27.8 points per game. So far, teams have averaged 234 passing yards per game vs. the unit (103rd). On the ground, they are giving up 130.5 rushing yards, putting them 58th in college football.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Looking at Nebraska’s three most recent road games, they have put together a record vs. the spread of 2-1.
• At home, Michigan State has gone 3-5-2 against the spread (last ten).
• Michigan State is 1-2 in their last three games as underdogs.
• Over their last three games as the betting favorite, Nebraska has an ATS record of 1-2.

Free Pick

Don’t sleep on Nebraska’s defense; it’s the cornerstone of their team, showing high-level play week in and week out. On the flip side, their offense is hampered by a slew of injuries, losing three of their starting offensive linemen, key receivers, and their two top running backs. They’ve struggled to amass more than 312 yards of offense in any of their last four games.

Michigan State’s defense is often underestimated but has proved its mettle by holding four of its last eight opponents to under 300 yards. Where Michigan State mirrors Nebraska is in its lackluster offense. They’ve managed to score just 16 or fewer points in five of their last six games.

Given the defensive prowess on both sides and the offensive struggles, particularly from Michigan State, taking the under at 34.5 seems like a smart bet. Expect a low-scoring game where defenses shine and offenses falter.