Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Pick

by | Dec 14, 2021 | cfb

No. 4 Cincinnati Bearcats (13-0 SU, 8-5 ATS) vs. No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1 SU, 7-6 ATS)

CFB Semifinal Goodyear Cotton Bowl Preview

Date/Time: Friday December 31st, 2021. 3:30PM (EST)

Where: AT&T Stadium Arlington, TX


Betting Odds:

Point Spread:CIN +13.5/ALA -13.5 (MyBookie - Grab a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit up to $300 when you type in bonus code PREDICT100 on their registration page!)

Total: 58

The College Football Playoff format has been around for eight seasons, but the 4th ranked Cincinnati Bearcats became the first non-Power Five conference to earn a playoff berth this season. Despite a relatively easy schedule, the Bearcats were flawless on the season, going 13-0 SU which was elevated by quality wins over no. 9 Notre Dame and no. 21 Houston in the season finale AAC Championship. On New Year’s Eve, the Bearcats will play the ultimate underdog role when they meet the top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide inside AT&T Stadium in the historic Cotton Bowl for a chance to earn a ticket to the National Championship.

Despite Alabama’s routine appearance in the
College Football Playoffs, the Crimson Tide’s path was bleak at several stages throughout the season. After an upset loss to Texas A&M during the middle of the season, Alabama was tested several times, including a four-overtime thriller in the Iron Bowl. Despite
being battle-tested, the Crimson Tide were considered a confident underdog to undefeated Georgia in the SEC Championship. Instead of wilting to expectations, Alabama delivered their most complete performance of the season by dominating Georgia in a 41-24 outcome
to earn their 7th College Football Playoff appearance in the format’s eight-year history.

Alabama Crimson Tide Playoff History

To say Alabama’s presence in the College Football Playoffs has been impressive would be the understatement of the century. Instead, Alabama has posted statistics that could easily go unmatched in the modern era. The Crimson Tide are currently +115 favorites to win their 4th National Championship in
the playoffs’ 8 year history and could go back to back for the 2nd time in the Nick Saban era. Often when experts and media have written off the Crimson Tide, they have found ways to prevail, just as we witnessed in the SEC Championship. As a result of their
nearly annual presence in college football’s biggest stage, I thought it would be nice to take a look at how Alabama has fared against the books throughout their playoff history.

Alabama is 4-6-1 ATS in 10 CFB Playoff games (favored in all games)
Alabama is 2-2 ATS as double-digit favorites in playoff history.
Alabama is 8-3 SU in CFB Playoff history.
Alabama has hit the over in 7 out of 11 games in CFB Playoff history.

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Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Analysis

Cincinnati will be the emotional favorite this week, with the large majority of the nation pulling for the Cinderella Story. In some ways, Alabama will be down on playmakers due to the fact star WR John Metchie III tore his ACL in the SEC Championship. Still, the Crimson Tide have the Heisman Trophy winner in Bryce Young behind center and WR Jameson Williams, who has produced 1,445 receiving yards with 15 touchdowns on the season.

Perhaps most importantly, Alabama’s offensive
line will have a tremendous size advantage over Cincinnati’s defensive front, and that should allow opportunities for the run game behind Brian Robinson. I have made a couple of comments this year that Alabama’s rushing attack has been far from the dominant
force that we have traditionally witnessed under Nick Saban’s teams. With that being said, this will be an upside match-up for Alabama to lean on with the running game, as Cincinnati’s run defense could provide a huge liability in this match-up.

The good news for Bearcats’ fans or anyone
pulling for the underdog is that I do believe Cincinnati will find ways to be successful on offense. The Bearcats are extremely talented in all facets of the offense. QB Desmond Ridder has posted a stellar season with 3,190 passing yards that have resulted in 30 touchdowns and eight picks. Meanwhile, running back Jerome Ford has also been exceptional with 1,242 yards and 19 touchdowns on the ground. Needless to say, Cincinnati can attack with confidence on the ground and through the air. I know statistics only tell
one side of the story against subpar competition, but bettors should not underestimate the Bearcats’ talent on the offensive side of the ball. Now can Cincinnati parlay the talent into an explosive effort against one of the best game planners in history? That
may be a bit of a stretch unless they get a huge effort from the Cincinnati defense.

I believe we are going to see fireworks in Jerry World and big plays from both offenses. If Alabama’s run game has the success I expect, this may be a very fast-paced game with big play opportunities throughout. As a result, I am taking the over 58 with confidence! Question: Did you know that you can bet on games at -105 odds instead of -110? Find this sweet money saving offer at BetAnySports Sportsbook!


Al McMordie Professional Handicapper

Al McMordie's 76-52-1 his last 129 NCAA Football, including his 5* Game of the Year on Oklahoma St over Notre Dame, and his Bowl Total of the Week last Monday on Kansas State/LSU OVER the total. If you enjoyed those huge winners, then don't miss Big Al's #1 Over/Under this season. It's Big Al's NCAA Bowl Total of the Year! Go get it!