Cincinnati Bearcats (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) vs. Michigan Wolverines (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)
College Football Week 2
Date/Time: Saturday, September 9th, 2017 12:00 PM ET
Where: Michigan Stadium Ann Arbor, MI
by KEITH, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: MICH -34.5
The Cincinnati Bearcats will hit the road and travel to the Big House in Ann Arbor, Michigan to meet with the Michigan Wolverines on Saturday, September 9th, 2017. The game will be broadcasted for regional audiences on ABC. Both teams enter off victories. For Michigan, the Wolverines cruised past a suspension-ridden Florida Gators in the Cowboys Classic on Saturday. The Maize and Blue would win the affair 33-17. It is worth highlighting that the Gators had ten suspensions to deal with heading into the game. Despite this, Florida lead at one point in the game but failed to cover as a five-point choice at the close of the market. On the contrary, Cincinnati won 26-14 against visiting Austin Peay. However, Cincy was offered as a 43-point favorite and did not come remotely close to covering as a heavy favorite.
It is no mystery. The Bearcats live and die by their offense. This is a team that has established a reputation for airing it out and accruing over 500 yards per game at a clip. Against Austin Peay, the Bearcats offense looked like a shadow of its former self as Austin Peay outgained Cincy in total yards by a margin of 313-248. Cincinnati did not pull away from the Governors until the final five minutes of the fourth quarter where the Bearcats would find a late touchdown. Otherwise, the contest was nip and tuck and Cincy could not shake off the visiting pest. Peay was scheduled to be a tune-up match for the Bearcats but instead Cincy find itself in a dog fight with a FCS opponent that on paper was supposed to be inferior competition. Such an event is likely to weigh heavily on the consensus perspective of this contest. With Cincinnatis offense looking lethargic and Michigan curating the hosting duties, it appears the Bearcats will be prey for the Wolverines. This is further reinforced by the notion that the Bearcats have noted struggles on the road. Dating back to last season, the Bearcats have lost their last four road games all of which were in grisly fashion. This narrative is also a presiding factor in the number offered.
Laying chalk is always a dicey move. Early action on the Wolverines suggest that the Bearcats will likely be priced at a wage that offers an abundance of value. With Michigan having its way with Florida, much of the public is likely basing their action off of this narrative. However, we must remind everyone that the Gators were without ten starters and even then they still managed to head to the front for a substantial portion of the contest. In fact, Florida collapsed down the backstretch. Michigan is still finding a way to handle losing ten starters on their defense and in doing so find trouble against a Florida offense that is none for being nothing short of lackluster. There is a very good chance Cincy was caught napping and looking ahead to this very meeting in The Big House.
Giving nearly five touchdowns to an offense as potent as Cincinnati can be problematic for even the stoutest defense. In the event Michigan were to jump out to a huge lead, there is a still a very good chance that Cincinnati can generate a backdoor cover. It is likely a popular notion that if Cincinnati had trouble dispatching Austin Peay that they do not have a chance against Michigan. The market itself is playing off this belief and enticing takers to buy into that philosophy. However, we will fade that and suggest Michigan is not as good as it appears. In addition, anytime you see a team like Michigan in a venue as recognized as The Big House you can expect to pay a hefty price to step in. In their last three home games, the Wolverines are 1-3 against the spread in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines only successful venture against the spread was achieved against Maryland as a 29.5-point favorite where the Maize and Blue would lay waste to the Terps by a score of 59-3. Once again, we are recommending to take the points.
KEITHs Pick to Cover the Point Spread: CINCINNATI +34.5
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