Clemson Tigers vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Odds, Trends, Free Pick ATS

by | Nov 30, 2022 | cfb

Clemson Tigers (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS)
When: Saturday, December 3, 8 p.m.
Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C.
TV: ABC

Point Spread: CLEM -7.5/UNC +7.5 (STOP betting games at -110! YOU-ARE-WASTING-MONEY! Start laying only -105 TODAY at BAS Sportsbook! You’ll be so glad you made the switch!)
Total: O/U 63.5

Outlook

The luster has come off this matchup completely, as Clemson is totally out of the running for the College Football Playoff after losing to South Carolina. The Tigers ran through the ACC without a defeat, but they couldn’t get the job done in the non-conference losing to both Notre Dame and the Gamecocks to ruin any chance they had of sneaking in. Both teams have known for a while they would be playing in this game, as neither was threatened in their run to the ACC title game, which is why the league will eliminate divisions after the season. Clemson’s offense has just barely gotten the job done against middling defenses, which might be enough to get through yet again.

And that’s because North Carolina’s defense aspires to be middling. The Tar Heels have proven so helpless on defense it’s almost been as if they weren’t there at all. North Carolina has allowed 30.3 points per game and managed to allow an N.C. State team that was down to its backup quarterback to put 30 on it last week. The Heels win with offense, and a lot of it. When they’re putting up numbers, they’re incredibly difficult to beat. When they’re not clicking, anyone can knock them off. Against Clemson’s defense, it might be tough for the Heels to get rolling.

How the Public is Betting the Clemson/North Carolina Game

The public and the sharps are in agreement here, as 66% of tickets have come in on North Carolina and the line has fallen from -8.5 to -7.5. The total has risen from 61.5 to 63.5.

Injury Concerns

Clemson:

Wide receiver Will Taylor (knee) is questionable. Wide receiver Beaux Collins (shoulder), cornerback Malcolm Greene (groin), defensive end Xavier Thomas (foot), defensive end Justin Foster (undisclosed) and wide receiver Troy Stellato (knee) are out.

North Carolina:

Running back Caleb Hood (undisclosed) is questionable. Linebacker Noah Taylor (lower body), linebacker Sebastian Cheeks (shoulder), wide receiver Tylee Craft (illness) and running back British Brooks (lower body) are out.

When Clemson Has the Ball

Given how poor D.J. Uiagalelei has played in the second half of the season, it’s likely that Clemson will choose to attack on the ground as often as possible. At least, that’s what Clemson should do, but after how poor the game plan was against South Carolina, there’s no guarantee that the Tigers will follow it. Clemson had Will Shipley averaging almost 10 yards a carry against the Gamecocks’ defense, but the Tigers only gave him the ball 15 times while letting Uiagalelei throw 29 times.

That came nowhere close to working, as Uiagalelei managed a mere eight completions out of 29 and missed on his final six passes. Once South Carolina went ahead, Clemson’s offense had no answer, as Uiagalelei ended one series with an interception and failed to pick up a first down on the other two possessions. Given how weak Carolina’s run defense is, the option to run all night and take the game out of Uiagalelei’s hands is likely going to be there for Clemson. If the Tigers fall behind, they might have a hard time keeping up given that their passing attack just does not measure up.

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When North Carolina Has the Ball

If North Carolina is going to turn the tables on Clemson, Drake Maye has to be better and Elijah Green has to be a lot better. Maye was just 29 of 49 through the air and Green scratched out just 83 yards despite getting 24 carries, which says a lot about how much the Heels squandered against N.C. State. The defense actually did decent by its standards, but the offense never got on the same page until the fourth quarter.

Given how well Clemson runs the ball, that cannot happen here. The Heels have to get off to a strong start and ensure that Clemson has to turn to its weak passing attack. Clemson’s pass defense hasn’t done the job well at all this year, as the likes of Wake Forest put up 45 points on the Tigers with a similar kind of attack to the Heels. Maye has to make sure he’s accurate with his throws and takes the runs only when they present themselves. If he forces things, this will not work.

Betting Trends

Surprises tend not to happen in this matchup. The favorite has covered in five of the past six meetings between these teams, and offense has tended to rule the day. The over has cashed in five of the past seven matchups, which flies in the face of Clemson’s recent December performances. The under has cashed in 16 of the past 21 games in December, and the Tigers have played to the under in four of their past five neutral site games.

North Carolina has tended to be a little bit weak on grass, as the Heels have failed to cover in four of their past five matchups on grass. They’ve also not been all that strong in neutral site games, as they’ve failed to cover in eight of their past 11 games at a neutral site.

Weather Report

The offenses might run into problems in the evening, because a late shower is coming to Charlotte in the evening. The wind is set to blow at seven miles per hour to the north, with temperatures falling to 38 degrees at night.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Carolina should be able to hang with Clemson. The Heels have managed to play tough against most of the better teams on their schedule, and the offense should be able to attack the Tigers’ weaknesses. Clemson should come out ahead, but the Tigers’ poor performance in their play calling last week doesn’t inspire much confidence.

I’ll go with Drake Maye over D.J. Uiagalelei. Give me the Heels. Bet your Week 14 NCAA football predictions for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% real cash bonus up to $500 at the web’s oldest and most trusted sportsbook when you enter bonus promo code PREDICTEM on the Special Offers page at Everygame Sportsbook! In business since the early 80’s!

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