Clemson vs. Florida State Betting Odds, Analysis & Predictions

by | Oct 13, 2022 | cfb

Clemson Tigers (6-0 SU, 3-3 ATS) vs. Florida State Seminoles (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS)
When: Saturday, October 15, 7:30 p.m.
Where: Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, Fla.
TV: ABC

Point Spread: CLEM -3.5/FSU +3.5 (Wagerweb – You can make the Tigers +16.5 or the Noles +23.5 by inserting either into a massive 20 point college football teaser found there!)
Total: O/U 51

Outlook

After back-to-back losses to Wake Forest and N.C. State, it’s clear that Florida State is a good team but still not good enough to think about competing for an ACC title. The Seminoles haven’t been anywhere close to that level since Jimbo Fisher left Tallahassee, however, so the fact that they’ve gotten to at least a mid-level ACC team this season represents real progress for Mike Norvell’s team.

However, they are still yet to have a real breakthrough win against an ACC foe to really signal that they’re back. It doesn’t look likely to happen here either, unless Clemson gets caught looking ahead to Syracuse. The Tigers are in a tough four-week stretch of three road games and the tilt with the Orange that might decide the ACC Atlantic, and with Wake and State both in Clemson’s rearview mirror, beating both FSU and Syracuse would essentially wrap up a return to Charlotte for the Tigers. But with this offense still looking fairly pedestrian, there is always the possibility for Clemson to let a lesser team hang around with them too long and put themselves at risk of blowing a winnable game. Clemson hasn’t lost to Florida State since 2014, but the Tigers also haven’t come to Tallahassee since 2018, and this is the best team that the Seminoles have had since the Tigers began their dominance of the ACC.

How the Public is Betting the Clemson/Florida State Game

The public favors Clemson by a sizable chunk, but the public virtually always favors Clemson, and Vegas knows it. The line hasn’t budged from -3.5, even with 68% of tickets on the Tigers. The total has ticked up from 50.5 to 51.

Injury Concerns

Clemson:Defensive tackle Bryan Breese (kidney) is questionable. Running back Kobe Pace (ankle), defensive end Justin Foster (undisclosed), and wide receiver Troy Stellato (knee) are out.

Florida State: Linebacker Amari Gainer (leg), defensive tackle Fabien Lovett (leg), wide receiver Darion Williamson (undisclosed), and running back Treshaun Ward (shoulder) are questionable. Wide receiver Ja’Khi Douglas (arm), wide receiver Winston Wright Jr. (leg), linebacker Stephen Dix Jr. (shoulder), offensive lineman Bless Harris (arm), offensive lineman Kayden Lyles (leg), and running back C.J. Campbell (leg) are out.

When Clemson Has the Ball

Say this for D.J. Uiagalelei: he’s making much better decisions with the football this year than he did in 2021. Last season, Clemson’s offense kept stepping in its own way because of poor decision-making and too many turnovers, and fairly or unfairly, Uiagalelei bore much of the blame for those struggles.

This season, Clemson’s still a defensive-minded team, but the Tigers aren’t trying to do too much on offense, and Uiagalelei has been much more effective this season. He’s already thrown for 14 touchdown passes, but more importantly, he’s only thrown two interceptions. This Clemson offense seems to understand that it doesn’t have to win games in the ACC; it just has to not lose them. That might backfire on them if they get to the playoff and have to deal with the likes of Georgia or Alabama, but for now, it’s working out well. With Will Shipley effectively getting the ground game going, Clemson won’t wow anyone on offense, but neither will it cost itself a chance at victory.

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When Florida State Has the Ball

Like Clemson, Florida State’s offense also doesn’t try to do too much. The Seminoles do move the ball effectively, but their real strength is that they don’t turn the ball over often and make sure that each possession either ends with points or flipping the field. When they got desperate at N.C. State in the final few minutes of the game, however, the Seminoles ran into problems. The game was there for Florida State to win in Raleigh, but two Jordan Travis interceptions in the game’s final six minutes ensured the Wolfpack would hang on for a two-point win.

Florida State can’t let itself get out of its style of play again. This team makes its living by taking what the defense gives and not letting itself get away from its identity. Against Clemson, that’s going to mean taking to the air. The Tigers’ weakness is their pass defense, as almost nobody runs against Clemson. With Treshaun Ward injured anyway and Clemson ranked second against the run, look for Travis to put the ball in the air here.More Picks: Check out Mike’s best bet on the Stanford at Notre Dame Week 7 game >>>

Betting Trends

Clemson’s rise and Florida State’s fall have converged, which has led the Tigers to smash the Seminoles in four straight meetings. The games in 2015 and 2016 were at least respectable for Florida State, but over the past four matchups, the average margin of victory for Clemson has been just under 27 points.

That said, bettors still have a stigma attached to both teams after Clemson’s terrible ATS showing in the first half of 2021 and Florida State’s awful loss to Jacksonville State. As a result, these teams have tended to be excellent bets as of late. Florida State has covered in five of six ACC games, and Clemson has covered in six of seven. Traditionally, these teams have put up points in Tallahassee, but the under is 4-1 in Clemson’s past five away from home, and FSU has played to the Under four times in 2022.

Weather Report

This should be a fine evening for football in the Florida Panhandle. Temperatures are going to drop into the low 60s and get as low as 55 degrees during this matchup, and winds will blow southeast at five miles per hour.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

With such a small spread, I’m not totally sold on Florida State here. The Seminoles have gotten better, but I’m not sure that they can make enough plays against this Clemson defense to get a cover when this is all they’re getting. I don’t think it will be a blowout by any means, but I’d feel a lot more comfortable taking Florida State if I were getting a touchdown.
As it is, I’m taking the Tigers. Bet your Week 7 NCAA football predictions for FREE by scoring a 100% real cash bonus up to $300 when you use bonus promo code PREDICT100 at MyBookie Sportsbook!