Clemson vs. Louisville Total Pick 10/19/19
No. 3 Clemson Tigers (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) vs. Louisville Cardinals (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS)
Date/Time: Saturday October 19th, 2019. 12:00PM (EST)
Where: Cardinal Stadium Louisville, K.Y.
Point Spread:CLEM -24.5/LOU +24.5 (Intertops)
Over/Under Total: 62.5
The no. 3 Clemson Tigers finally put together a solid offensive performance last week. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence threw for three touchdowns and running back Travis Etienne had 17 touches on the ground that resulted in 127 rushing yards. The Tigers made a statement early and kept their foot on the throttle in a 45-14 victory over Florida State. Personally, I was a bit surprised by the outcome because Clemson had not looked very good on offense this year, and I took the points with Florida State. It took the Tigers best offensive performance of the year to capture the cover, and I have no regrets in my decision looking back.
Luckily, this week we have an even better opportunity for a winner when the 3rd ranked Tigers roll into Cardinal Stadium for a showdown with the Louisville Cardinals. Clemson is currently listed as 24.5 point favorites, which is pretty close to where they have been favored against most ACC opponents this year. For the Cardinals, they are coming off their biggest win of the season by taking down no. 19 Wake Forest in a 62-59 thriller. Despite losing starting quarterback Micale Cunningham early in the contest, backup Evan Conley kept the offense alive in a shootout victory over the Demon Deacons. The Cardinals have found their momentum on the offensive side of the ball which means two emerging offenses will come together Saturday providing some unique value in a relatively conservative total!
Louisville scoring trends progressing each week
The Cardinals offense has had three different quarterbacks behind center this year due to injuries. Micale Cunningham was the latest victim in last Saturday’s win against Wake Forest. After a terrific start, Cunningham was ruled out with a head injury for the remainder of the game. Cunningham’s status is still not certain, but the good news is that Evan Conley looked equally impressive off the bench. This Cardinals offense is highly efficient. They spread the ball around to a few speedy receivers in Tutu Atwell and Dez Fitzpatrick. Not to mention, the offense has a great running back in Javian Hawkins that gives the coaching staff the ability to attack in different areas of the field. I have not only been impressed with the offense, but I have been thoroughly impressed with the play calling from Scott Satterfield’s staff in recent weeks.
Louisville will find ways to move the football this week despite an extremely talented Clemson defense. This offense is designed to find the high probability plays, and if the Cardinals can sustain drives in the first half, their pace could create problems as the game moves into the late stages. For these reasons, I believe Louisville will put some points on the board. Will it be enough for a cover? That is difficult to predict because the Cardinals defense has been a trainwreck. For as good as the offense has been, the defense has been the complete opposite. In the last three weeks, the Cardinals have given up point totals of 35 against Florida State, 39 to Boston College, and 59 last week to Wake Forest. As a result the totals for those games have concluded at 59, 80, and 121 most recently. With another imposing offense coming to town, this 62 point total this week could be shattered as long as Louisville can remain successful on the offensive side of the football.
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Clemson vs. Louisville betting trendsThe Cardinals are just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games despite being 4-2 ATS on the season. The Cardinals are only 1-8 ATS in their previous nine games against ACC opponents. Meanwhile, Clemson is 7-2 ATS in their last nine games. In terms of the total, which I expect to put pressure towards the over, Clemson has been trending below the mark with the “under” hitting in 4 of their last five games. I would point out that was due to Clemson’s slow offensive start this year, which has played better in the previous few weeks. For Louisville, the trend is more encouraging. The Cardinals have hit the “over” in 10 of their last 14 games and are a perfect 8 for eight on the “over” in the previous eight games in October!
Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Over 62.5
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