Before we get started into our college football handicapping
tutorial/guide/tips we’d like to make a little disclaimer. There are OODLES
of ways and variables to factor into handicapping a football game. Please
don’t take this as the bible or be critical of what we didn’t include.
There’s only so much space on this page not to mention not everything is necessary to include when capping games.
College Football Handicapping
by Predictem.com Staff
Before we get started into our college football handicapping tutorial/guide/tips we’d like to make a little disclaimer. There are OODLES of ways and variables to factor into handicapping a football game. Please don’t take this as the bible or be critical of what we didn’t include. There’s only so much space on this page not to mention not everything is necessary to include when capping games.
Watch as many games as you can. While stats and trends can help in your handicapping, there is no better tool than actually watching the games on TV and picking up how teams play.
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Try to focus on small college football games. These games are less paid attention to by the oddsmakers and if you dig enough, you can actually find our more information than the books do about the current week’s matchup and create an overlay (where the odds are in your favor.)
Avoid big nationally televised games. The bookies spend more time on these games and the spreads are tighter. If you absolutely have to bet on these games, always consider the underdog first, because being nationally televised and all, “the book” knows that the general public loves to root for favorites and “overs,” so they often times inflate these lines sucking the value out of the fav and the over.
Study how often both teams turn the ball over. Turnovers can play a huge roll in college football games. Since many college foots games are mismatches, if you get a really big and fast defense (the Florida teams) vs. a team with a weak offensive line and weak offense, the superior team can tend to create a lot of turnovers which will have a big influence on the outcome of the game. Look for teams that are good at forcing turnovers vs. teams that have a tendency to give the ball up often through interceptions and fumbles.
Home/Road advantage. Some teams play really well at home and others play horrible on the road. While this is often times already factored into the spread, sometimes matchups happen in which the home field advantage can be worth more than the books have given it credit for.
Using statistics to handicap. Things to look for are rushing yardage per game vs. rushing defense, passing offense vs. passing defense. Don’t just look at each teams season numbers, look through box scores on a game by game basis. Often times numbers can be skewed by one shutout or blowout.
Check the weather report. Coaches gameplans change when inclement weather is present. Many teams tend to pass less and run more. This surely has a big impact on the spread and total both giving the dog and the under more value. Pay special attention to games with crappy weather where the spread/total haven’t moved yet. Great value to be had here!
Check for injuries! What’s worse than betting on a team and finding out their starting quarterback is out and some freshman is playing? YUCK! It happens too!
Join a college football handicapping forum. Thousands of sets of eyes are better than two. Not only can you coattail some great picks by winning amateur handicappers, but you will be able to share information with other’s from around the world. Check out our college football handicapping forum, you’ll be glad you did!
Find out who the public is one-siding and bet the other way. While this doesn’t work for “just any” game, it is a great tool to help you get on or off a pick. Point spreads are based on public perception. If your looking at a game in which the public is hammering it to the tune of 70% or more, it’s very likely that the bookies have pulled the wool over their eyes and the other team is going to cover. Bookies don’t drive cadillacs for no reason!
We hope you have enjoyed our pointers on handicapping college football games. If you’ve got any questions, feel free to email us at Predictem (at) Hotmail.com