Fresno State Bulldogs vs. San Diego State Aztecs Pick 11/15/19

by | Nov 13, 2019 | cfb

Fresno State Bulldogs (4-5 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS)

When: Friday, November 15, 9:30 p.m EST

Where: SDCCU Stadium, San Diego

TV: ESPN2

Point Spread: FRES -1/SDSU +1 (Bookmaker - 25% Cash Bonus up to $1000 FREE when using Bitcoin to deposit! One of oldest and most trusted online since the 90’s!)

Total: O/U 42.5

Outlook For Week 12

In losing to Nevada last week, San Diego State has opened the door for Fresno State to come in and steal control of the Mountain West’s West Division. The Bulldogs are just 4-5 and have work to do to become bowl eligible, but if they can run the table, they would win the division, as they would own wins over Hawaii, who they have already beaten, and San Diego State and Nevada, who remain on their schedule. The Bulldogs are starting to show signs of finding their footing from a season to go, having beaten Hawaii on the road, and played a solid Utah State squad to a mere two-point loss.

Meanwhile, San Diego State has been the king of the tight contest. Only two of the Aztecs’ nine games have been decided by more than 10 points, which is a precarious situation to exist in. For most of the season, San Diego State has done enough to survive, but that wasn’t the case last week, as Nevada edged the Aztecs and turned the season into a battle for the division when it could have been a coronation at this point. The Aztecs still have all of their goals in front of them, but they’ve got to win this game, which means that the pressure is really on in this situation.

How the Public is Betting the Fresno State/San Diego State Game

The line has turned in Fresno State’s favor since the opening, as it’s gone from San Diego State, giving 1.5 to getting 1, while the total has fallen from 44 to 42.5.

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Injury Concerns

Fresno State:
Offensive lineman Matt Smith broke his fibula and is out for the season.

San Diego State:
Safety Kyree Woods tore his ACL in his right knee and is out for the year.

When Fresno State Has the Ball

Fresno State loves to throw and throws it pretty well, riding the arm of Jorge Reyna to 2,106 passing yards and 11 scores against six interceptions. However, the Bulldogs are no Hawaii. They’re not a pass-happy team that can’t be bothered to run the ball; they’re a balanced offense that has gotten good production from Ronnie Rivers, who has 655 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns to his name this season. By any measure, Fresno State has got a quality offense that has kept it in games, as the Bulldogs have scored at least 30 points in seven of their nine games.

Where Fresno State gets into trouble is if it doesn’t have the ball. The Bulldogs’ defense simply can’t keep people out of the end zone. In Mountain West play, the only opponent to fail to score at least 30 points was UNLV, and the Rebels finished with 27. Fresno State can’t count on its defense to do much of anything; it must rely on continuing to score to win games.

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When San Diego State Has the Ball

Shield your children’s eyes. The Aztecs cannot move the ball much at all this season, averaging just 20.8 points per game. San Diego State gets acceptable play from Ryan Agnew at quarterback, but the Aztecs can’t count on Juwan Washington’s ground attack to keep drives going, and other than Kobe Smith, who hasn’t found the end zone since October 5, Agnew doesn’t have any really reliable targets.

So why are the Aztecs 7-2? Because they know how to play defense. Only two opponents have even broken 20 on San Diego State: Utah State, who won a 23-17 game, and Wyoming, which fell 26-22. Otherwise, 17 is pretty much the ceiling for Aztec opponents, who haven’t come close to making a dent in the No. 8 defense in the nation.

Betting Trends

These two teams have a knack for stopping each other, and Vegas knows it. Although Fresno State has hit on the over in five straight games, the total is low because the under has been a money play for the past six years in this matchup. It’s also been a money play for San Diego State, as the Aztecs have come in under the total in five of their past six games against Mountain West opposition.

What hasn’t been a money play is San Diego State at home. Whether it’s that they’re playing in a crumbling stadium that’s stood for five decades or it’s that they happen to be road warriors, the Aztecs have only covered once in their past nine games at home. However, they have the right opponent to break that streak in Fresno State, which has not played well in November in recent years. The Bulldogs are a mere 1-4 ATS in their past five games in the regular season’s final full month, which does not bode well in this one.

Weather Report

It’s San Diego. The weather is almost always perfect. This will be no exception, with 70 degrees and sun on tap for kickoff.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

This game has taken on a somber note in the wake of the death of San Diego State freshman Dylan Hernandez, a student who died at a fraternity event over the weekend. Tragedy off the field can lead a college football team to react in one of two ways. Either the off-field incident can serve as a distraction that prevents the team from playing its best, or it can unite the squad and cause it to play an inspired game in hopes of lifting the spirits of everyone on campus. Usually, the latter is the case when the team has had some time to process the tragedy and mentally begin the grieving process, and San Diego State has had several days since that incident before getting ready to take the field.

In this situation, the Aztecs are also coming in angry with themselves after taking a loss to Nevada that really should not have happened. However, they can make up for it by beating Fresno and all but locking up their spot in the Mountain West title game. I think San Diego State is good enough to do that, and given that I’m only getting a single point with the Aztecs, I’d rather take the money line and get a higher payout for a game I expect the Aztecs to win. Something has to give with the offense vs. defense situation, and I’m going to count on the San Diego State defense to provide me with a win. Another way to play this is a teaser bet. You can move the line by as many as 20 points with the super teasers at BetAnySports! They offer -105 lines on all games too! This saves you $5 per $100!