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Georgia Bulldogs vs. Kentucky Wildcats ATS Prediction

by | Oct 30, 2018 | cfb

Georgia Bulldogs (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) vs. Kentucky Wildcats (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS)
When: Saturday, November 3rd, 2018 - 3:30 ET
Where: Kroger Field, Lexington, Kentucky
TV: CBS

Point Spread: DAWGS -9.5 / UK +9.5
Total: 44
Poll Rankings: Georgia (5) / Kentucky (12)

Takeaways From Week 9

The Bulldog Nation is back. After looking flat and dead in the water on the road in Death Valley against presently ranked No. 4 LSU, the Dawgs responded with a 36-17 victory against their most hated rival the Florida Gators on Saturday in the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. Though Florida owns a physical defense that likes to blitz, the Dawgs beat the Gators at their own game and were the more physical team. The Dawgs went back to playing Georgia football which means going back to the running attack. The combination of Elijah Holyfield and DeAndre Swift overwhelmed the Gators for 189 yards on the ground while The Nation’s defense caused three UF turnovers. The Dawgs looked like a national contender once again.

How the Public is Betting the Georgia-Kentucky Game

Presently, 59% of the public consensus liking Georgia in this spot. The market opened with the Dawgs as a double-digit favorite, but we have since seen some action come in on the Cats to diminish the line by half of a point to its current station.

The Historical

The Wildcats last defeated the Bulldog Nation in 2009 in Athens, but it is worth annotating that the Red and Black were in a transitional year when this transpired. The Dawgs were a far contrasting animal in the affair mentioned above as they had inconsistency at the quarterback position and a defense that was far more porous. Since then, it’s been all UGA. Kentucky came close two years ago when they hosted but Georgia folk-hero kicker Rodrigo Blankenship kicked the Dawgs to a 27-24 victory.

Injury Concerns

The biggest concern all season for the Bulldogs have been injuries to personnel on the offensive line. Be that as it may, guard Ben Cleveland remains out for this contest. Not to undermine what Big Ben contributes but the Dawgs have plenty of depth at this position and have since plugged in reputable talent in guards Cade Mays and Kendall Baker.

When Georgia Has the Ball

Bulldog football is running the ball down your throat to allow quarterback Jake Fromm to pass off it effectively to weapons on the perimeter. At the wide receiver position, the Dawgs have a lot of weapons, including speedster Mecole Hardman, acrobatic playmaker Terry Godwin, and physical players in both J.J Holloman and Riley Ridley. However, expect the Dawgs to implement a heavy dose of Elijah Holyfield and DeAndre Swift to get the night going.

When Kentucky Has the Ball

Benny Snell is the bell-cow for this outfit and not only is he the engine of the Kentucky offense but effectively the pulse of the Wildcats football team. If Kentucky wants to have an opportunity to win this football game they will have to get Benny going early against a Georgia defense that at times gave up some explosive run plays to opponents. However, the Dawgs still only give up 140.5 yards per game (43rd nationally).

Betting Trends

Two noteworthy trends get our attention. The Dawgs have covered in the last five meetings between both parties. In addition, the Wildcats are 2-3 ATS at home this season while being undefeated on their own field.

Weather Report

Weather conditions are expected to remain fair here as the forecast calls for a sunny day in Lexington with temperatures hovering between the 40’s and 50’s on a typical brisk autumn afternoon.

Keith Pick to Cover the Spread: Georgia -9.5

Experience in big games will be the difference maker in this contest. For Kentucky, this is perhaps one of the biggest games in program history as a win here sends UK to Atlanta to play for the SEC and boasts them into the top ten for sure. For the Bulldog Nation, the same narrative applies in terms of clinching a bid to the SEC Championship Game. However, the Dawgs are on a mission and want to get back to the College Football Playoff to re-write history after what happened last year in the National Championship Game. In summation, the Dawgs know what they have to do while Kentucky will be thinking about what they can potentially do. This will make Kentucky juiced up and perhaps mistake-prone. Furthermore, Kentucky’s home field advantage can be neutralized very quickly by The Bulldog Nation as Georgia’s fan base has been known to travel well and even intimidate opponents in their own house (just ask Notre Dame). These two intangibles will lead to a Bulldog victory and cover.

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