Georgia vs. Auburn Pick ATS 11/16/19
No. 6 Georgia Bulldogs (8-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) vs. No. 11 Auburn Tigers (7-2 SU, 7-2 ATS)
Date/Time: Saturday November 16th, 2019. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Jordan-Hare Stadium Auburn, A.L.
Over/Under Total: 40.5
The ‘Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry’ will be rekindled this weekend when the no. 11 Auburn Tigers host the no. 6 Georgia Bulldogs on the plains at Jordan-Hare Stadium. For Georgia, this will be their last big test before potentially representing the SEC East in the SEC Championship. The Bulldogs would earn a trip to the SEC Championship with either a win this week against Auburn or a victory next week at Texas A&M. The Tigers are out of the SEC Championship race with previous losses against two top 10 ranked opponents in LSU and Florida. Auburn currently sits at 7-2 SU with big match-ups at home against Georgia this week, and then the Iron Bowl is on the horizon, which will also be at home. The Tigers could have an excellent opportunity to close out the year with a few big wins, and their best shot could be this weekend’s meeting against the no. 6 Bulldogs.
Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry
The Auburn-Georgia football rivalry is labeled the “Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry” because it is one of the oldest rivalry games in college football. The Tigers and Bulldogs first squared off in 1892 and have recorded 123 meetings between both prestigious programs. World War II caused a brief pause in the rivalry as Auburn failed to field a football team during 1943, but both sides have met annually since the 1944 season. The Bulldogs lead the all-time series 59-56-8 and have held the upper hand in recent years as well. Georgia has won 4 of the last five regular-season meetings and 5 of the previous 6 if you include the 2017 SEC Championship Game. The Bulldogs are currently listed as 3 point favorites to continue their streak over the Tigers. However, Auburn’s last three wins have all come on the plains at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Bulldogs vs. Tigers betting match-up
On paper, Georgia appears to be the better team, especially on the defensive side of the football. The Bulldogs rank 5th in total defense, allowing just 260 yards per game and 2nd in scoring yielding only 10.1 points per game. The big challenge for Georgia’s defense this weekend will be stopping the relentless Auburn rushing attack. Both of these offenses rely heavily on their ground attack to move the football. Georgia is more of a traditional power running team behind their tremendous offensive line, and Auburn uses a spread attack that operates like a triple-option rushing team filled with RPO’s. The schemes are different, but both offenses put a heavy focus on moving the football and controlling the pace of the game on the ground.
One of the reasons I think this match-up gives Auburn hope is because the Tigers defensive line is very talented and I’m sure being at home will help as well. Auburn ranks 21st against the run allowing just 112.7 yards per game. Unfortunately for Auburn, Georgia’s defense has been even better-ranking 4th against the run allowing only 74.6 yards per game. When I breakdown this game, I can’t find many ways Auburn wins unless they can produce several big plays. I don’t see Auburn dominating on the ground as we have witnessed against inferior opponents. The Bulldogs defense is just too talented.
I expect Georgia Head Coach Kirby Smart to put heavy support in the box to stop Auburn running back JaTarvious Whitlow and disrupt the running attack. When that happens, I think the Tigers will be exposed again at the quarterback position where Bo Nix continues to struggle against top competition. In the three games earlier this year against ranked SEC defenses, Nix has completed just 38 of 82 passing (42.6%) for 402 yards with three touchdowns and four picks. Those numbers are completely awful but not surprising due to Auburn’s limitations at the position. Meanwhile, Georgia has one of the most talented running backs in the SEC by way of D’Andre Swift, and a very capable quarterback in Jake Fromm, who has tossed 13 touchdowns with just three picks on the year. Every way you slice this game, Georgia has the edge.
Georgia vs. Auburn betting trends
The Bulldogs are .500 on the season at 4-4 ATS through 8 games. The most significant recent trends for Georgia surrounds the total where the Bulldogs have hit the ‘under’ in 6 of their last seven games. Meanwhile, Auburn has been one of the best betting teams in college football in 2019 with a 7-2 record ATS. The Tigers are 8-2 ATS in their last ten games and have also hit the ‘under’ in 13 of their last 16 games as an underdog. In this historic rivalry, Georgia has won 5 of the previous 6 meetings and has covered the spread in 5 of those last 6 meetings. The ‘under’ has also hit in 5 of those last 6 meetings as well.
Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Georgia -7. This is also a great game to throw into a teaser! Did you know that BetAnySports has college football teasers up to 20 points?
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