Kentucky Wildcats vs. Florida Gators Pick 11/28/20

by | Nov 24, 2020 | cfb

Kentucky Wildcats (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) vs. Florida Gators (6-1, 4-3), 11/28/20

Time: 12 pm ET Saturday, Nov. 28

Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium

TV: ESPN

Point spread: Kent +23.5/Fla -23.5 (Bookmaker - No frills sportsbook that pays lightning fast when you request your payout!)

Money line: Wildcats +1050/Gators -2500

Over/Under: 57.5

The Florida Gators appear headed toward the SEC championship game, going into a date with the Kentucky Wildcats Saturday afternoon at the Swamp. But Kentucky is giving the Gators good games over recent seasons and even stopped Florida’s 31-game series winning streak a couple years ago. The Gators are favored by better than three touchdowns for this one; can they cover the big number? Or can the ‘Cats give ’em a fight? And how are we playing this game with our free college football pick?

College Football Betting Odds

College football betting odds opened Florida at -21.5 over Kentucky, with an over/under of 57.5. Early betting action then goosed the Gators to -23.5.

Kentucky vs. Florida Betting Preview

The Wildcats started 2-2 this season but are 1-3 both SU and ATS over their last four games, after getting bombed by Alabama last week 63-3. Kentucky, playing shorthanded thanks to some virus situations, fell down to the Crimson Tide 7-0 early, kicked a field goal to pull within 7-3 but trailed 28-3 at the half. The ‘Cats then threw a pick-6 on their opening possession of the second half and faded from there, coming up empty against the spread as 31-point dogs.

Kentucky got out-gained by Alabama 509-179, out-rushed 226-59 and made just 12 first downs to 29 for the Tide.

The Wildcats have now been out-gained and out-rushed three times over their last four games.

Two weeks ago Kentucky led still-winless Vanderbilt 14-0 early and 38-21 late but gave up two Commodores scores in the last three minutes to piss away the cover as a 17-point favorite. Prior to that the Wildcats lost to Georgia 14-3, and while they covered as 17-point dogs UGA just isn’t that good this year. And just before that the ‘Cats lost to Missouri outright 20-10 as three-point favorites.

At 3-5 overall Kentucky needs to win its last two games to even get a sniff of a bowl bid, and even that probably won’t be enough.

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Florida, meanwhile, rides a four-game winning streak into Saturday, following last week’s 38-17 victory over Vandy in Nashville. The Gators spotted the Commodores the first seven points of the game, trailed 10-7 well into the second quarter but scored twice in four minutes to lead 17-10 at the half. Florida then scored the first 14 points out of the locker room to take control, on its way toward the W.

However, the Gators never threatened to cover the spread as 31-point favorites.

Florida out-gained Vanderbilt 586-406, out-rushed the Commodores 173-87 and won time of possession by a 34:26 split.

The Gators have now out-gained each of their last four opponents by an average of 219 yards per.

Two weeks ago Florida beat Arkansas 63-35, covering at -17; three weeks ago the Gators beat Georgia outright 44-28 as two-point dogs; and three weeks ago they beat Missouri 41-17, covering at -14.

At 6-1 in conference play Florida leads the SEC East by a game and a tie-breaker over Georgia. If the Gators can avoid a slip-up over the next three weeks against Kentucky, Tennessee and LSU they’ll likely meet Alabama in the SEC championship game, with an invitation to the College Football Playoff on the line.

Wildcats-Gators Recent History

Florida beat Kentucky 31 times in a row from 1986-2017 but the Wildcats finally snapped that skid with a 27-16 victory two seasons ago. And Kentucky almost made it back-to-back last year, taking a 21-10 lead into the fourth quarter. The Gators rallied to win that game outright 29-21 but the ‘Cats covered as 10-point dogs.

In fact, Kentucky is 3-0 ATS its last three games against Florida.

Also, last year’s game played over its total of 46.5 on a 76-yard Gators touchdown run with 33 seconds left.

College Football Betting Trends

  • Kentucky is 15-7 SU, 11-11 ATS with Terry Wilson as the starter at quarterback.
  • Kentucky is 23-41 SU, 26-37-1 ATS in SEC play under Coach Stoops.
  • Florida is 14-3 SU, 10-7 ATS with Kyle Trask as the starter at QB.
  • Florida is 17-6 SU, 13-10 ATS in SEC play under Coach Mullen.

Totals Report

Unders are 5-3 in Wildcats games this season, which are averaging 47 total points against an average over/under of 50 .

Overs are 5-2 in Gators games this season, which are averaging 73 points against an average O/U of 61.

Overs are 3-1 over the last four games in the series between these teams.

Free College Football Pick

We thought Kentucky was better than it’s shown this season; unfortunately the Wildcats are a disappointment so far. And yet we still have some faith in Coach Stoops and his troops. Florida, meanwhile, is of course the better team here and should win this game without too much trouble but we wonder of Coach Mullen might call off the dogs once this one is in hand. He’s still got a couple more games to win after this. Kentucky’s given the Gators good games three years in a row and we expect a good effort Saturday, too. We like the ‘Cats here, plus the points. Note: There’s a 99% chance that you’re laying -110 odds on your football bets. Did you know that there’s a good book out there where you only have to lay -105? Imagine how much money you would save over the years! Make the switch TODAY to BetAnySports! You’ll be so glad you did!