Louisville vs. Duke Prediction ATS 11/18/21

by | Nov 17, 2021 | cfb

Louisville Cardinals (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) vs. Duke Blue Devils (3-7 SU, 4-6 ATS)

When: Thursday, November 18, 7:30 p.m.

Where: Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, N.C.

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: LOU -19.5/DUKE +19.5 (Bovada - Get 50% added to your first deposit and start betting at a sportsbook that has the most amazing live wagering platform online! FAST payouts too!)

Total: O/U 60.5

Outlook

The “Lawsuit Rivalry” takes place for just the second time as ACC members and third time overall, as Duke famously bought its way out of a four-game series with Louisville without paying a cent two decades ago by arguing in court that its football team was so poor that any opponent the Cardinals could schedule would be equal or better than the Blue Devils. Things aren’t a heck of a lot better this season in Durham than they were back in 2002, as the Blue Devils are out of the postseason picture and are staring at their first winless campaign in the ACC since 2007, when David Cutcliffe took over for Ted Roof. The Blue Devils certainly won’t fire Cutcliffe, but with Duke now looking at three straight years with no postseason and Cutcliffe turning 68 next season, retirement might be coming for the longtime Duke coach after this and the season finale against Miami.

Louisville won’t be in any mood to give Cutcliffe a win in what could be one of his last two home games in Durham, not with a potential bowl bid on the line. Win here, and the Cardinals can play without pressure in the season finale against Kentucky, with the only thing at stake being the chance to ruin their archrival’s season. Lose to the Blue Devils, and the Cardinals will enter the rivalry game with the Wildcats needing to win to have any chance at playing in the postseason. Duke enters as losers in six straight games, which should represent excellent opportunities for Louisville.

How the Public is Betting the Louisville/Duke Game

The public thinks the spread has been pushed a bit too far, and 64 percent of the tickets have come in on Duke. The total has ticked up from 59 to 60.5, but the spread has yet to drop from 19.5, suggesting sharp money on the Cardinals.

Injury Concerns

Louisville:
Cornerback KeiTrel Clark (leg) is questionable. Wide receiver Braden Smith (knee) and linebacker Monty Montgomery (knee) are out.

Duke:
Quarterback Gunnar Holmberg (ribs) is questionable. Tight end Matt Smith (knee) is out for the season.

When Louisville Has the Ball

Louisville moved the ball very well on Syracuse in the first half, knocking the Orange out of the game well before halftime behind the arm of Malik Cunningham. Cunningham didn’t throw often, but when he did, he was efficient, striking for 209 yards and four touchdowns on just 13 completions. Jordan Watkins and Tyler Harrell tore through the Syracuse secondary for multiple long completions, and Jalen Mitchell more than did enough to keep the Orange’s punchless offense off the field.

This game should be more of the same, as Duke’s defense hasn’t shown any ability to stop anybody. The Blue Devils are giving up 500 yards a game on the season and have allowed 45 points or more against each of their past four opponents. With Duke giving up almost 37 points per game, this should be a strong performance from the Cardinals’ offense if they play anywhere close to their capabilities.

When Duke Has the Ball

The situation has quickly gone from bad to worse for the Blue Devils, as Gunnar Holmberg didn’t play against Virginia Tech and the Blue Devils’ already weak offense went to anemic under Riley Leonard’s stewardship in a 48-17 loss to the Hokies. Duke wasn’t able to do much of anything in the passing game, as both Leonard and Jordan Moore finished with less than 85 passing yards for the game, with Leonard failing to throw a touchdown pass in the game.

If Holmberg is able to go, Duke will at least have some kind of threat in the passing attack with Jake Bobo and Jalon Calhoun, but if not, the Blue Devils will almost have to turn to Moore. That’s because with Leonard in the game, Duke has virtually no ground game whatsoever. The quarterback ran for 113 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries and ended up with more rushing attempts than passing attempts, but at least it gives the Blue Devils something to move the ball with if he’s in the game. If it’s Leonard, Duke might struggle to hit 10 points.

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Betting Trends

Duke might be struggling to cover as of late, but the Blue Devils have been a pretty solid play at home, covering in 14 of their past 21 games at Wallace Wade Stadium as an underdog. However, the Blue Devils have really had their problems against the ACC, as they’ve lost 11 straight games in the league and have just five covers in their past 21 conference contests.

Louisville is a team that tends to play to expectations. The Cardinals have just six covers in their past 21 road games, but they’re 5-1 ATS in their past six away from home against a team that has a losing record in its building. They’ve also covered in seven of 10 as a favorite, and they’ve got infinitely more at stake.

Weather Report

The weather in the Triangle is going to be multiphrenic, with warm temperatures in the day giving way to temperatures falling into the 40s as the game gets underway. Rain showers are also in the forecast, with winds blowing at seven miles per hour going northwest.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Duke is showing no ability to stick with teams right now, and if Holmberg doesn’t play, the Blue Devils essentially have nothing to threaten the Cardinals with. Louisville knows that it really doesn’t want to have to play Kentucky with a bowl berth on the line, so I expect the Cardinals to take care of business in a big way here. Give me Louisville. Bet your Louisville vs. Duke pick and ALL your week 12 college football predictions for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook! (Must use bonus code PREDICT100 in order to qualify for the special bonus). Click here to sign up now!

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