Michigan Wolverines vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Pick ATS

by | Oct 15, 2019 | cfb

Michigan Wolverines (51 SU, 2-4 ATS) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS)

When: Saturday, October 19th, 2019 – 7:30 PM ET

Where: Beaver Stadium – State College, PA


Point Spread: MICH +9 / PSU -9 (WagerWeb)

Total: 45

Poll Rankings: Penn State -12

Takeaways From Week 7

he Maize and Blue have now won three consecutive games after sustaining a thumping at the hands of those pesky Wisconsin Badgers. Last Saturday, Michigan ventured to Champaign, Illinois, to square off with the Fighting Illini of Illinois. Closing as a 24.5-point favorite, the Wolverines failed to cover despite defeating the Oskie Wow-Wow’s handily by a score of 42-25. It is worth annotating that Michigan led by as much as 28 before Illinois rallied with 25 unanswered to come within three of the Wolverines. From that point, Michigan would put the pedal to the floor and pull away from the resurgent Illini.

The Nittany Lions passed a massive test last Saturday night in the fabled Kinnick Stadium. Closing as a 3.5-point favorite, Penn State marched onto defeat the hosting Iowa Hawkeyes by a score of 17-12. The victory allowed Penn State to attain its first road win against a ranked opponent under Coach James Franklin.

How the Public is Betting the Michigan-Penn State Game

PSU opened as a 7.5-point favorite. As a result of early action on the Nittany Lions, Penn State is now spotting an additional 1.5 points to the visitors. In the present state, 57% of the consensus like the Wolverines with the points.

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The Historicals

The Maize and Blue have won four of the last five meetings between both sides. In 2018, the Wolverines hosted the Nittany Lions in the Big House and decimated them. Closing as a 13.5-point favorite, Michigan marched onto a 42-7 win.

Betting Trends

The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the previous five meetings. Another noteworthy trend for takers is the Over has gone 4-0 ATS in the last four contests between Penn State and Michigan.

Injury Concerns

Heading into this prime-time B1G clash, Michigan Running Back Zach Charbonnet is listed as questionable after sustaining an unspecified injury on Saturday against Illinois. Charbonnet has accumulated 376 yards on the ground and five scores this season.

Why We Like Michigan To Cover

The results of last week are likely heavily influencing this market. However, we must remind the masses that Michigan was the favorite to win the B1G in the pre-season. Nevertheless, college football is a “what have you done for me lately?” kind of business. Michigan has not put together a victory this season that would suggest it was worthy of its pre-season accreditation. Contrarily, the Nittany Lions have been impressive week-in and week-out. However, Michigan will likely be insulted by the number posted in this market. I can see Coach Jim Harbaugh using this as bulletin board material to fire up his players. After all, Michigan has dominated this series and will feel that they should not be priced as a significant underdog.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Michigan +9

Penn State in a night game is a very tough out. There will be “White Out” conditions in Happy Valley, and given how the favorite and home team have ruled this series, there is likely an overlay working here on the Nittany Lions who are both in this spot. For those that jumped ship on Harbaugh and the Wolverines after Wisconsin smoked them in September, this is Michigan’s moment to redeem itself and serve those individuals a plate of crow. This game will have a defensive connotation to it. After all, Michigan owns the 15th best scoring defense in the FBS (17.5 points per game), while PSU is an astounding second in America in scoring defense, giving up an insane 8.2 points per match. Points will be hard to come by in this affair; thus, I have a tough time laying more than a touchdown in this market. Regardless of who wins this contest, the margin of victory will likely be very slim. A touchdown at most will separate these two sides, and the match will probably be settled on the final possession. Will Michigan stage an upset? It’s certainly possible.
Nevertheless, the environment may be disruptive enough to create one mistake or error that separates the Wolverines from a win. However, Michigan is by no means foreign to the rigors of playing in Beaver Stadium, and they will be incentivized to give their best effort here. A victory for the Maize and Blue puts Michigan right back into the B1G and even the College Football Playoff conversation. I expect a spirited showing from the Wolverines and would not be shocked if they did, in fact, win this one outright.