Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Northwestern Wildcats Value Play

by | Last updated Sep 21, 2023 | cfb

Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-1 SU, ATS 1-2) vs. Northwestern Wildcats (1-2 SU, ATS 1-2)

Date: Saturday, September 23rd

Location: Ryan Field, Evanston, IL


Point Spread: Min -11/NW +11 (100% bonus up to $300 w/code PREDICTEM @ BetUS!

Money Line: Minn -463/NW +348

Over/Under: 38

The Minnesota Golden Gophers and Northwestern Wildcats matchup in a Big Ten showdown at Ryan Field in Evanston, IL. The over/under for this matchup is currently 38 while Minnesota is favored by -11.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The last time Minnesota and Northwestern faced off came last year, ending in a 31-3 win for Minnesota. Offensively, Minnesota had the edge with 366 yards compared to 278 for Northwestern. Minnesota’s offense finished with 302 rushing yards and 64 in the passing game.

Minnesota Golden Gophers Recent Form:

Following their recent matchup against North Carolina, Minnesota’s overall record has fallen to 2-1. The Golden Gophers couldn’t secure the win, resulting in a 31-13 loss.

Going into the game, Minnesota was the 7.0-point underdogs, and in addition to losing straight-up, they did not cover the spread. The team’s combined 44 points was not enough to surpass the over/under line of 52.5.

Against North Carolina, Athan Kaliakmanis threw for 133 yards against North Carolina, but did throw a touchdown pass. Overall his passer rating was 38.43 on a completion percentage of 37.9%.

The top rusher for Minnesota against North Carolina was Darius Taylor. He gained 138 rushing yards and scored one time in 22 attempts. For the game, Corey Crooms Jr. hauled in four receptions for a total of 46 yards which led the team.

On defense, Minnesota finished their game against North Carolina, by giving up a total of 519 yards. North Carolina threw the ball 40 times for 414 vs. Minnesota. While on the ground, the Golden Gophers gave up 105 rushing yards. Minnesota’s defense is ranked 122nd in passing yards allowed per game as they prepare for this matchup. Opponents have attempted an average of 26.3 passing attempts against the Golden Gophers. They have given up 15.7 points per game so far, placing them 25th in college football. In the NCAA’s rush defense category, they are 62nd.

Away Injury Report

FullName Position InjuryBodyPart InjuryStatus
Darnell Jefferies DL Undisclosed Questionable
Bryce Williams RB Undisclosed Questionable
Derik LeCaptain LB Undisclosed Questionable
Cody Lindenberg LB Leg Questionable
Jackson Ruschmeyer OL Undisclosed Questionable
Craig McDonald DB Undisclosed Questionable
Lucas Finnessy DL Undisclosed Questionable
Jack Tinnen LB Undisclosed Questionable

Best Parlays

2 Team Parlay 3 Team Parlay 4 Team Parlay
sportsbetting 2.64 to 1 6 to 1 12.3 to 1
Bovada 2.64 to 1 5.95 to 1 12.3 to 1
Mybookie 2.64 to 1 5.95 to 1 12.3 to 1

Northwestern Wildcats Recent Form:

Carrying an overall record of 1-2, Northwestern is ready to take on this game. However, their most recent contest ended in disappointment as they fell to Duke with a final score of 38-14.

Northwestern and Duke combined for 52 points in the game, which was enough to surpass the over/under line of 48 points. In addition to losing straight-up, Northwestern did not cover the spread as 17.0-point underdogs.

In the loss to Duke, quarterback Ben Bryant concluded with a QB rating of 56.37 while connecting on 17 of 34 passes for 123 yards. Moreover, he contributed one touchdown to the game.

Finishing the game with 49 yards on the ground, Cam Porter led Northwestern in rushing against Duke. However, he did not run for a touchdown in the game. For the game, Cam Johnson hauled in five receptions for a total of 45 yards which led the team.

The Wildcats’ defense finished the game by giving up 487 total yards to Duke. The team’s run defense allowed 268 yards rushing compared to 219 in the passing game. This season, the Wildcats’ defense has allowed 164.7 rushing yards per game, ranking 82nd. Opponents average 199 passing yards, and opposing quarterbacks have put together a passer rating of 84.1 against Northwestern. They hold the 39th position in NCAA points allowed.

Home Injury Report

FullName Position InjuryBodyPart InjuryStatus
Raymond Niro III WR Undisclosed Questionable
Matt Lawson DL Undisclosed Questionable
Preston Bacon WR Undisclosed Questionable
Anthony Tyus III RB Undisclosed Questionable
Chris Petrucci TE Undisclosed Questionable
Blake Van Buren TE Undisclosed Questionable
Miles Crutchley LB Undisclosed Questionable
Frank Covey IV WR Undisclosed Out
Jack Fitzgerald TE Undisclosed Questionable

Betting Trends

  • Minnesota’s five most recent games vs. the spread has seen them go 1-4 against the spread.
  • Looking across Northwestern’s three most recent home games, they are 1-2 against the spread.
  • Looking back at the last ten times Northwestern went into a game as the underdog, their ATS mark was 4-6.
  • Minnesota are 0-3 in their last three games as favorites.

Line Movement:

As for the current moneyline odds, Minnesota presently has 82% likelihood of victory, with a moneyline payout of -466. Meanwhile, the Wildcats’ implied win percentage stands at 22% on a moneyline of +350. Having initially opened as the 13-point road favorites, Minnesota still holds the favored status, with the lines now at -11. The opening over/under line for this game, as per the oddsmakers, was 39.5. However, it has been adjusted down to its current line of 38, with the over paying out at -110 and the under at -110.

Free Pick

Northwestern might not have been at their best lately, but let’s not forget they’ve faced some tough teams like Rutgers and Duke, who haven’t lost a game yet. Plus, Northwestern did beat UTEP by a good margin.

On the flip side, Minnesota has won two games, but both wins were at home. They beat Nebraska, who’s still figuring things out with a new quarterback, and Eastern Michigan, who barely defeated a weak Massachusetts team. Plus, Minnesota didn’t look too hot when they played UNC last week.

Now, Northwestern’s offense wasn’t great in their last game. But that’s kind of expected when you have a team with only four guys returning to their offensive line-up. Even with these struggles, Northwestern might just need a small step-up to keep the score within 11.5 points against Minnesota. Take NW +12

Lay -105 on point spread bets instead of -110 at BetAnySports!