Mississippi vs. Auburn Prediction ATS 10/30/21

by | Oct 28, 2021 | cfb

Mississippi Rebels (6-1 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) vs. Auburn Tigers (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS)

When: Saturday, October 30, 7 p.m.

Where: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, Ala.

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: MISS +3/AUB -3 (SportsBetting.ag - Awesome live betting platform!)

Total: O/U 66

Outlook

Hard as it seems to believe, the door is still open for both of these teams to reach the SEC title game and earn the likely privilege of getting trucked by Georgia in Atlanta. Auburn will actually be the SEC West representative if it wins out, as the Tigers’ only loss in league play is to the Bulldogs, and they still get to face Alabama in the season finale, which would lift Auburn into first place if the Tigers can win out.

Mississippi needs a bit of help, but the Rebels can set themselves up to take advantage of an Alabama slip if they can keep winning. They’ve mostly found ways to get the job done in Lane Kiffin’s second season in Oxford, and even though the win over LSU wasn’t quite the prettiest, it did the job. However, this is exactly the kind of game in which Auburn thrives: a game in which most of the attention is coming in on the other team. Auburn is actually the favorite in this game, largely because the Tigers have won five straight against the Rebels.

How the Public is Betting the Mississippi/Auburn Game

The public is with the Rebels here, but the sharps are seeing something in Auburn and expecting the Tigers to keep the run going against Ole Miss. The spread has ticked up from -1 to -3, despite 58 percent of tickets on the Rebels. The total has not budged.

Injury Concerns

Mississippi:
Wide receiver Braylon Edwards (lower body) is questionable. Wide receiver Jonathan Mingo (foot) is out.

Auburn:
Linebacker Owen Pappoe (leg), kicker Ben Patton (lower body), defensive end T.D. Moultry (undisclosed), wide receiver Elijah Canion (undisclosed), and defensive tackle Zykeivous Walker (arm) are questionable. Wide receiver TarVarish Dawson (undisclosed) and defensive tackle Jeremiah Wright (knee) are out.

When Mississippi Has the Ball

The Rebels do have other options besides Matt Corral on offense; it just seems like everything they do flows through their quarterback because he almost always has the football. Corral is now the Rebels’ leading rusher as well as their passer, and it’s not because Mississippi has a weak stable of backs. Henry Parrish Jr. and Snoop Conner both average above five yards per carry; Mississippi just chooses to put the ball in Corral’s hands more often than not because good things tend to happen when Corral has the ball.

One of the most important things Corral does is avoid mistakes, as he’s thrown for 15 touchdowns this season while rushing for nine and only throwing one interception. Twenty-four of Mississippi’s 38 offensive touchdowns have either started with Corral throwing or finished with him in the end zone for the year. However, with Braylon Sanders and Jonathan Mingo banged up (and Mingo out of action, a lot of pressure could be on Dontario Drummond from the Auburn defense. Drummond has been Corral’s go-to guy this year, but if Auburn blankets him, someone is going to have to step up.

When Auburn Has the Ball

While Mississippi is confident in its offensive attack, Auburn is less so in Bo Nix and company. Good Bo Nix showed up in the Tigers’ most recent contest, a win over Arkansas, as he tossed just five incompletions for the entire game. However, there’s a bit of a problem there: two of Auburn’s four offensive touchdowns were on quick plays instead of a longer drive that could keep the opposing offense off the field.

In order to get a result in this game, Auburn needs to ride Tank Bigsby on the ground and get a solid performance out of Nix that keeps the Rebels’ offense off the field. Auburn doesn’t have the defensive capabilities to keep the Rebels from lighting things up in this game, so the Tigers’ best bet is to keep Corral off the field by taking advantage of the Rebels’ soft run defense. The longer the Tigers stay on the field, the better their chances of victory.

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Betting Trends

Not only has Auburn been winning in this series, but the Tigers have also consistently covered, as they’ve covered the number in six of eight meetings with a push. However, the only two of the past eight matchups in which betting the Rebels wasn’t a loser both came at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Under Kiffin, Ole Miss hasn’t been a great bet in SEC play, covering in just one of its past five conference games, but the Rebels have played well on the road, covering in five of six away from home as an underdog.

When Auburn plays in the SEC, defense is almost always the way to go. The Tigers’ past six October games have seen five games go under, and the under is 8-2 in their last ten league games.

Weather Report

This is going to feel more like Big Ten weather than SEC weather, with temperatures falling to 50 degrees on a cloudy night. Winds will blow at six miles per hour west-northwest.

Dan’s Prediction to Cover the Spread

I think I might buy an extra point here because this is exactly the type of game that Bo Nix has no business winning and then somehow pulls out. I think it’ll be decided by a field goal or less, and for that, I want the underdog. I’m taking Mississippi and the points and hoping the Rebels can avoid giving up long drives. Want a sweet bonus? Check this out! Deposit $25 and get a FREE $50 bet! How to receive this killer offer: Register for an account at Intertops through this special link. Deposit $25. Go directly to their Special Offers page and enter bonus code ROOKIE200. The extra fifty bucks will showup in your account INSTANTLY!

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