Navy Midshipmen vs. Memphis Tigers Odds & Pick

by | Oct 13, 2021 | cfb

Navy Midshipmen (1-4 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. Memphis Tigers (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS)

When: Thursday, October 14, 7:30 p.m.

Where: Liberty Bowl, Memphis, Tenn.

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: NAVY +10.5/MEM -10.5 (BetOnline - Awesome live betting + 35% crypto reloads!)

Total: O/U 55

Outlook

What happens when a stoppable force meets a very movable object? We’ll find out in this one, as Navy’s punchless offense goes up against Memphis’ weak defense. The Tigers are allowing anyone and everyone to shred them in 2021, giving up 457 yards of offense and 32.7 points per game. But Navy’s barely moving the ball, scoring just 17.6 points per game and notching just 282.6 yards per game, the latter of which ranks 127th in the nation.

The Midshipmen have managed to hang in there in their past three games thanks to some solid defensive play, but Memphis represents a stronger offensive test than what they’ve seen over the past three weeks, as four of the Mids’ first five games have been played in Annapolis. Last year, Navy was able to force Memphis to play its game — which the Tigers did for a 10-7 victory, but Navy might not be anywhere near as lucky this time around.

How the Public is Betting the Navy/Memphis Game

The public is backing Navy, but the money has come in on Memphis. The sharps have pushed this spread from -8.5 to -10.5, with the total jumping from 52.5 to 55.

Injury Concerns

Navy:
Safety Mitchell West (leg) is questionable.

Memphis:
Quarterback Grant Gunnell (lower body) is out.

When Navy Has the Ball

Everyone and their brother knows what’s coming when Navy has the ball: triple option. Navy barely even tries to pass, as Tai Lavatai has just 17 attempts on the season and a mere seven completions, and that’s the most of any of the three quarterbacks the Midshipmen have used. But the problem is that Navy isn’t exactly running the ball all that well, as the Mids’ leading rusher is fullback Isaac Ruoss with just 233 yards.

Because they don’t pass much at all (their 62 passing yards per game is actually the most Navy has had in the past eight seasons), Navy really needs to be averaging around 350 yards a game on the ground to be an effective offense. The Mids are instead at 219 yards a game, very respectable for a team with an aerial attack but disastrous for a run-always squad. That said, they are facing a defense that allows 457 yards per game in this one. However, most of that tends to come through the air, and Navy’s not going to be able to take advantage of a weak secondary.

When Memphis Has the Ball

This is quickly spiraling out of control for Memphis, and the turnovers were a big reason why the Tigers couldn’t get the job done against Tulsa. Memphis piled up 614 yards against the Golden Hurricane last time out, but the Tigers still blew the game with three turnovers and allowed Tulsa to take over in a 35-29 defeat.

Seth Henigan has lit up the stat sheet this season and tossed for 463 yards against the Golden Hurricane, but the decision-making has been a bit questionable at times. The Memphis quarterback threw two interceptions last time out, with the last one proving the back-breaker that allowed Tulsa to run out the clock. Memphis’ best bet is to let Calvin Austin attack the Navy secondary, as he had 13 catches for 200 yards against Tulsa, but the Tigers are going to have to be far more efficient with the ball this time around. They’re not likely to get the 77 plays they did against Tulsa, so tossing over 50 passes isn’t likely to work.

Get Dan’s Clemson at Syracuse Point Spread Winner >>>

Betting Trends

Navy has been an outstanding cover team in AAC play, having covered the number in 16 of its past 21 league games, including three straight games in the conference. Conversely, Memphis has been a disaster for bettors, as they’ve failed to cover in seven of their past eight games in the league and they’re 0-4 ATS in their past four games in October.

The one thing working in Memphis’ favor is that the home team has covered in four of the past five matchups in this series, with one push. The over has cashed regularly for Navy, as it’s gone 6-1 in the past seven times that the Mids have been a road dog. However, Memphis has seen the under cash in four straight at home.

Weather Report

This isn’t going to be a pleasant situation for football, with temperatures hovering in the low 70s and high humidity. A few showers during the night isn’t going to help matters, although wind likely won’t matter at six miles per hour heading south.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Memphis’ biggest weakness is defending the pass, but Navy can’t pass and isn’t going to try. The Tigers did just get gashed by Tulsa, but the Golden Hurricane likely has a stronger rushing attack than the Midshipmen, and Memphis should be able to do enough to get the win here.

Whether they can cover, though, might be another matter. I think the Tigers will get the win, but I don’t think it’s by double digits. I’ll take the Midshipmen and the points for the cover. Did you know that you could be betting on games at -105 odds? Dump your overpriced bookie and start betting for less TODAY by making the switch to BetAnySports Sportsbook! You’ll be so happy you did!